Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
summonerrk
on 07/11/2023, 20:40:36 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
It is good to have thought through your strategy and make sure that it fits for your situation, and surely here we are not getting so much into trading strategies, but sometimes it is important to figure out a kind of psychological balance that works, and since you say that you are striving to accumulate BTC, then you may well be continuing to add funds to your accounts as well?   It is more difficult to build your account merely by trading back and forth between BTC and USDT... so I don't really mind the idea of it, and even something like 70/30 BTC/USDT might seem more practical to me, but surely a variety of your individual factors are going to matter.. including how long that you have been stacking sats...

so if you have been stacking sats for a long time (gosh even if we go by your forum registration of more than 7 years ago), then it would make less sense to have your funds so skewed in favor of USDT, and I remember some times in the past (in around late 2017) that my funds had gotten into the ballpark of 90% BTC and 10% cash, and I was feeling like I had way too much cash, but that was when the BTC price was going up, so I was shaving off some BTC along the way up, so I could see that there might be times that a person will shave off BTC on the way up, and then get towards higher levels of cash as contrasted with BTC, but I still have some troubles understanding the justification to try to maintain 50% cash (or USDT),

so I suppose just on the face of it, it seems to be me that you might not be very strongly convicted in terms of believing in the power of BTC... because we know that the dollar (and thus also USDT) is in a situation in which it is inevitably losing a lot of purchasing power on a regular basis.. sure they try to say that it is in the single digits, but it also depends on what you are trying to buy, so it seems to me that in the coming years bitcoin is poised to do quite a bit better than the dollar and the rate that the dollar is losing purchasing power.. but surely at the same time, there can be a lot of up and down along the way to see how it plays out and also various periods of time in which bitcoin may end up doing surprise exponential UPward price moves that never end up really recovering (or dipping back down), and then you could end up regretting that you had chosen such a seemingly relatively whimpy bitcoin allocation.


I did not have the opportunity to engage in such accumulation of BTC, since due to personal reasons I had a break of several years (about 4), and I returned to the forum and to active accumulation less than a year ago. I agree with you that 50 percent may be too high a share for such an ethereal token that is added to the owners' accounts with the snap of a finger. 40 and even 30 are quite fair.


I doubt that the line is as thin as you are making it out to be.  Sounds like you are a trader, even though it seems that your goal is to accumulate bitcoin, but if you are fucking around with your whole stash that would be pretty messed up.  We likely need a few more details regarding what are you doing once a month with these buys and sells and whether you are religious about it with a system and if you might have a main holding stash or if you are just loosey goosey about the whole thing. then seems like you are a trader.... but if you are ONLY playing around with less then 5% of your stash, then it might be a bit more ambiguous regarding what you are.. .. but you ahve to figure out how much you are holding. and it has to be more than 50% or probably even more than 90% before you are going to start to fall into the HODLer category rather than a trader category. 

The punchline is that more details are needed, and each of us might categorize these matters differently, even though I doubt that the line is as fine as you are seeming to suggest it to be merely because you are wanting to trade but still call yourself a HODLer.

My main goal is to increase my BTC count by maintaining 50% bitcoins 50% usdt. And depending on the price on the market, my pending orders change the state of the deposit - this can lead to a share of 95% of Bitcoin, and vice versa - 95% of USDT. Ultimately, the strategy still strives to make it 50/50. I understand that in this way, in a full market, I will not get all the cream from the price of Bitcoin, just as if it falls, it will not hurt me like those who are 100 percent in Bitcoin. How did I come to these views on accumulation? Since 2017 I have been a Bitcoin holder, I have waited and waited. And when the price became 65k, I didn’t even transfer part of the money to USDT. I believed that the rocket would fly further. But the rocket flew down. And I realized that it’s pointless to just hold it, market fluctuations can be used to increase the share of BTC, and at the same time not shake with fear over the schedule. I do not claim that the strategy I described above is correct. But I came to this, and these are my views. I gave you guys, my arguments. I'm a trader who doesn't trade much. I am a holder who sometimes buys and sells because the funds have to work.
You have been involved in investment since 17 years so there is nothing new to tell you about investment as you know all the ins and outs of investment. You invested in 2017 and still didn't sell your investment when the price of Bitcoin touched $65,000. 
After the price of Bitcoin touched the highest $65 thousand you felt that you should hold your investment for a longer time and you did. Since you have not sold your investment even after the price of Bitcoin has hit a record high, there is nothing to discuss with you whether your investment is long-term because you are a long-term Bitcoin holder. You should not think that it was a bad decision not to sell your Bitcoin when it was worth $65,000. I would say in the context of that time you made the right decision because the market was very positive at that time and the Bitcoin market was approaching $100,000 at that time no one could sell their investment even if they wanted to. 

We missed out on a $65k opportunity but better things await us ahead. The market is now positive and the expectation is that the Bitcoin market will touch $50000 in early 2024 and the price of Bitcoin will increase gradually thereafter and I have held my investment on that assumption. I am never disappointed in holding my investment because I believe that if I hold my investment I will definitely get good returns at some point.

I love your positive attitude and your quality of looking for the good in things like this.

Bitcoin is not stable, and predicting it's price will cause more problem to you when you don't get back in return what you expect. Even as many of us always talk about buy dip and hold, I also think some are mearly following the trend  but thinks of how to make profit in coming bullrun. And this is the reason see people are buying the dip and hold otherwise. And it's a wrong interpretation of the Dip and hold. Note: I am not referring to you but using this as an example to explain to others.

There is an axiom in my thinking, based on which the entire strategy is based. Bitcoin will always recover and come back at a high price. Therefore, everyone who bought it at any price must wait and sooner or later they will receive the benefit. They will definitely get it. Therefore, I am very happy when the order ladder is triggered when the price decreases and cheap BTC are bought.