Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
JayJuanGee
on 09/11/2023, 05:55:28 UTC
⭐ Merited by fillippone (1)
If we really look back at the history of when Bitcoin started to rise in price, it is really disappointing that we didn't buy it even a little bit. I can't imagine that it started at around 0.001$ and then went down to 0.0005$ per bitcoin, where for only 10$ these days, you have 20 000 bitcoins immediately.

Try to imagine if you just held on to what you did and sold it in 2017. You will be very rich for sure, and you are just enjoying your life now. But now, it is very expensive, even though it can be considered that it has dropped a lot compared to 2021, when it reached 69k more.
Especially now that the bitcoin halving is coming or going again, the bull run can precede or follow as it approaches the halving and depends on the situation that will happen in the market as well. So the majority of the community here in this industry spends double time saving.

I doubt it is a great idea to fantasize cashing out of all of your BTC, because even if someone were to have had accumulated thousands of BTC in earlier days (let's say 2011 or 2012) for relatively low prices, s/he could still cash out fractions of his/her holdings at various UPpity price points, and still feel quite well and in a good financial and/or psychological place and still perhaps have a lot of his/her BTC stash.. maybe even have 60% or more of the original amounts.. so there really should not be any needs to cash out high portions of a person's BTC stash, especially if s/he had either bought a lot of BTC in earlier days or just had been building up a lot of BTC over time.

it's funny that some persons will wait for moments when they see bitcoin price going up before the thought to invest in bitcoin comes to there mind and like you rightly pointed out, bitcoin price can go up and then up, up and then down, down and then down and so on. so you can't just predict that because it is going up now , this is absolutely the time to invest into bitcoin and when you see the price going down you retreat from your plan on making the investment. It means that if you even successfully make the investment, you can't hodl your bitcoin because in the event of any fluctuation in price, you will let go of your investment.

Real investors sees the prospect of bitcoin and invest a certain amount and leave it for quality amount of time while he monitor the price without getting seriously moved by any fluctuations in price that comes along the way.
It's quite funny how some people apply their strategy in accumulating Bitcoin, in the first place why would I prefer  to buy Bitcoin when the price is making its way to the top instead of purchasing when the price was much lower. When the price is lower I can make a bountiful profit than when the price is in the bull run, meanwhile there is very strong assurance that Bitcoin must surely make its way to the top.

You seem to be presuming that the BTC price is going to go down, merely because it has gone up, but that may well be a pretty BIG ASS presumption.

Sure, if you had already been buying BTC for the last year and a half or so, then you have no problems, but part of the problem might be for anyone who just got into bitcoin this calendar year, they may well have not have had enough time to stack as many sats as they would have had preferred... and so those people who may well perceive themselves as low coiners because they ONLY recently started buying BTC, then they are left with a bit of a dilemma regarding how to buy as the BTC price is going up and/or whether to potentially hold back some value to buy if the BTC price dips, but sometimes the BTC price goes on an upwards streak for an extended period of time, and does not dip back to earlier prices, and those people who did not get in are not able to buy at those earlier prices... and we can never know for sure when those price points are going to occur, but we can look back at bitcoin's history and we can see some times in which the BTC price had crossed over some price points and never returned back down to those then lower levels..

It is right time we acquire some certain knowledge and apply them, everything goes with planning and strategies, we don't just wake up and decide to make investment without studying what is involved in it.
It should be in our utmost plan that when the price is at the DIP or anything less than the last ATH it is a very good time to buy more even if a person is on DCA it still doesn't matter

That sounds right.. but still you can likely understand and appreciate how newbies can feel dilemmas about these kind of UPpity price moves.

Perhaps what is even the need of always waiting for the dip before accumulating when you that even if the price of Bitcoin dips we cannot even accumulate a reasonable amount of Bitcoin due to how small our investment portfolio is
Funny how you concluded that we are all small fries; seems you don't believe someone of the participants in this discussion can actually could actually be holding a huge portfolio. Well, I doubt if there is any MicroStrategy investor here, so your point is noted.

There are no needs to disclose, but there are surely guys/gals with more than 50 BTC, and guys/gals with more than 100 BTC, 500 BTC and various other higher amounts, and even the one with 50BTC or more should be in a pretty decent place financially and psychologically.

The ATH of Bitcoin is $69k and price is still below this price. Until price breaks this high, we are still at a good price to buy. At $35k, Bitcoin have offered 50% discount to anyone who buys now; this is simple mathematics.  Whenever there is any bull run, the first target will be the ATH, this will already put those buying now in 50% profits.
Your math on the way down is correct, but your math on the way up is not correct.  Let's look at it.

ATH $69k,

Current price $34,500 - 50% drop in value from ATH - however, ATH = 100% increase in value.

That is ONE of the interesting things about math including the non-use of leverage, the most that we could lose is 100%, but there are a variety of scenarios in which we could end up making more than 100%, which has already happened multiple times in BTC's history and likely to continue to repeat itself.

I'm surprised how this maths beats me; even simple logic would have made me realise this mistake but I was thinking in one direction only. Thank you @JayJuanGee for the correction.

When price returns to the ATH, which is likely happening any moment from next year with other things being equal,  it will actually be a major kill for those who would buy now

Yep.  Surely in recent times we may have gotten greedy and maybe we want to get multiples of returns over cycle, and I had  already stated that in 2013, I would have had been largely happy with averaging 6% per year, but in recent times, even after March 2020, many of us might come to realize that 6% per year might not be enough, but we still might feel that we can be content with averaging returns oif something like 10% to 12% per year... so anything higher than that seems to be icing on the cake... and so we will see how the averages play out in the coming years.  Surely 2022 did bring BTC prices down quite a bit, and 2023, is now starting to turn out as a pretty good year, so far, and so it frequently is nice to have some cushions from the bottom, even though I might not be quite comfortable with proclaiming that sub $30k is over and/or out of the picture, but I am getting more confident to consider possibilities that sub $20k is over and/or out of the picture... It can take a bit of time to really start to feel comfortable about UPpity price moves, because frequently we will end up getting 20% to 40% price corrections, even while the BTC price is mostly going up.  It is difficult to pre-judge, but not necessarily so difficult for some of us who might have been spending quite a bit of time preparing for UP in the past year or even a bit longer than that.


Anyone who bought BTC below $17,250 made at least 100% when BTC prices went above $34,500, even if they may well chose not to cash out much if any of their BTC, then they end up having options, but they also start to experience more and more the power of exponential growth (and the power of compounding).. because the next doubling, if it ends up taking place to $69k, would end up causing the one who bought below $17,250 to have at least 3x in profits and 4x the original amount. 
This is a testimony to the fact that Bitcoin has enormous potential to change someone's financial fortune within a short time. Within a space of five months, Bitcoin have given 100% profit.

It can be amazing.  If you look at the charts for early 2019, we got 3.5X in 3 months, but a lot of those profits were given back, and they did not really get locked in until late 2020... so even great profits might sometimes continue to be subjected to high stress and/or even tricking us to sell too much too soon because we get nervouse when we might go through some of the seemingly inevitable large price waves.

it's funny that some persons will wait for moments when they see bitcoin price going up before the thought to invest in bitcoin comes to there mind and like you rightly pointed out, bitcoin price can go up and then up, up and then down, down and then down and so on. so you can't just predict that because it is going up now , this is absolutely the time to invest into bitcoin and when you see the price going down you retreat from your plan on making the investment. It means that if you even successfully make the investment, you can't hodl your bitcoin because in the event of any fluctuation in price, you will let go of your investment.

Real investors sees the prospect of bitcoin and invest a certain amount and leave it for quality amount of time while he monitor the price without getting seriously moved by any fluctuations in price that comes along the way.
When bitcoin prices are high, anxiety and fear of missing out usually lead some people to consider investing in the bitcoin. They are motivated by the belief that if they invest now while bitcoin is rising, it will continue to increase and they will profit from it without considering the possibility that the crypto market could quickly go from being sweet to bad. 

Yeah, but we are not talking about the "crypto market" in this thread.  We are talking about bitcoin.  Why should we give any shits about the "crypto market," unless you meant to say bitcoin and you just misspoke.   It sounds pretty dumb to suggest that there is some kind of a crypto market out there, as if bitcoin were following the price of some shitcoins.. when in fact it should be understood that the dog wags the tail and not the other way around, and in this case, bitcoin happens to be the dog, if you had not noticed and/or understood about that.

Instead of focusing solely on the current price, whether it is high or low, every crypto investor should set a long-term price target that will help them determine when to purchase and when to sell for a profit.

We are also not talking about selling and/or trading in this thread.  Are you sure that you are not lost JoyMarsha.