Quote from: Dickiy on Today at 04:58:42 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 10, 2023, 06:00:07 PM

Quote from: rachael9385 on November 10, 2023, 05:42:39 PM

However, Bitcoin newbie can't buy a whole Bitcoin just when they want to start, even if they do it is not going to be at one time but multiple times (×10 ×20), it might even take some of them UpTo 8 months, 1 Year or more.
For instance, many people from my region can't buy a whole Bitcoin (1 BTC) just in one time, it is not because they done have the money to buy it but because they are new to it and some of them can't just believe BTC to the extent of using about 41 million naira to buy Bitcoin when they are not well educated.

You don't seem to be saying anything different than me in terms the unlikelihood that someone would buy a whole BTC at once, and even an aggressive DCA strategy in the ballpark of $100 per week is going to take 6 years just to invest up to $31k, so it may well not even be fast enough to get 1 BTC in 10 years at that $100 per week level of DCA...

But yeah there are some people who can be more aggressive than that.. but usually not regular folks.

Although basically every individual has freedom in terms of Bitcoin accumulation and it does not rule out the possibility for them to do an aggressive way like you said with such an amount, but in my opinion it is not a good accumulation if they do a way that can suppress (force) them in terms of their finances, even though their goal is quite good to master 1 Bitcoin, but honestly I would not really recommend this method to anyone unless indeed if you are one of the conglomerates who have an income far above average and with a DCA of $100 a week is not at all burdensome and does not interfere with your basic needs then go ahead.

I frequently use terms like aggressive and/or overaggressive in terms of trying to be descriptive of how someone might attempt to manage their finances, and the better that they are able to project out their cashflow and their expenses and the more emergency funds that they have, the more aggressive they can afford to be without devolving into gambling or into a situation in which they would have to sell their bitcoin at a time that was anything other than their own choosing. Surely, some people might misread what I am saying and even be sloppy in their own accounting and believe that they are being "aggressive" when they are actually being reckless (which is more like gambling rather than investing). It is not necessarily possible to save everyone from their own inclinations and mistakes that they might make if they misread aggressive to be something that devolves into a kind of gambling practice.

For example, there may be some guys who really can ONLY afford $10 per week at most, but they might decide to be overly aggressive, and maybe the could get away with $20 per week without recking themselves but just putting themselves into a lot of extra stress, but they might really end up fucking themselves if they were to do something like $50 per week because they simply do not have enough cashflow to cover their expenses and including various emergency expenses that could come up from time to time.

Quote from: Dickiy on Today at 04:58:42 PM

But in my opinion on the other hand this is still not a good alternative, because obviously if we look in terms of time then it will still take a lot of time for you to achieve success to reach 1 Bitcoin, and also on the other hand time will continue to run, meaning that as long as you do this method it is very likely that there will be changes in the price of Bitcoin, if bearish dominates when you do this method until completion then it is a little profitable, But if Bitcoin is rising due to factors such as halving, it is likely that the amount of money you have to allocate will increase and with that means that in terms of time it will also definitely be longer if you put a flat amount ($100) on each DCA you do.

Besides the point of 1 bitcoin being a bit of an arbitrary goal and it might not even be necessary to focus on it, but the other aspect is that if someone believes that they want to get to 1 bitcoin, and if they ONLY have $100 per week, it is possible that they will never get to 1 bitcoin.. or maybe it will take them way longer and/or surely they might have to increase their amount invested into BTC.. but it still might not be a bad idea to create and maintain some goals, even if they might be somewhat aspirational and might not be reachable based on current financial/psychological circumstances, but there may be some anticipation that income might rise in the future, expenses could be cut and maybe there will be some dips in the BTC price or maybe BTC prices won't go up as much as anticipated.

Even someone investing $10 per week into bitcoin had some anticipation of reaching 1 bitcoin in a year or less because BTC was priced at $250 at the time, so $10 per week would result in $520 invested into bitcoin after a year... but even after the 2017 price rise and the dip in BTC prices in 2018, 2019 and 2020, it could have had been possible for a person to get to more than 1BTC by investing $100 per week, and maybe even gotten to several bitcoin.. We can see that someone who invested $100 per week for 5.5 years since June 2018 would have invested about $28,500 by now and would have gotten up to around 2.4107 bitcoin (worth about $89,200 in today's prices) until now.

Or how about we add on an extra year and use your forum registration date and try to figure this out in terms of percentage returns of a steady DCA versus whatever else you might have attempted to do during the last more than 6.5 years. We can see that someone who invested $100 per week for more than 6.5 years since April 18, 2017 would have invested about $34,300 by now and would have gotten up to around 3.8085 bitcoin (worth about $140,915 in today's prices) until now.. that's about a 4.1x return.

I don't mind using my own date too, but let's just go along with the hypothesis that we may well would not have had needed to invest as much in order to still be able to reach similar kinds of levels of BTC merely from having had gotten in earlier. So might would be almost 10 years, and let's go with December 1, 2013, and if we project $10 per week until now, then my total amount invested would be $5,290 and my number of BTC would be about 4.72 bitcoin (worth about $174,640 in today's prices) That's about a 33x return.

By the way, I do frequently suggest that my average cost per BTC is right around $1k, so that almost matches up with my claim of currently having around 37x profits if we use $37k as our current price.

In the end, the ability to get to 1 BTC with a $100 per week may well be very difficult to achieve for those people starting right now, and they likely would need to have a higher budget or just to be more realistic in regards to the quantity of bitcoin that they expect to get over 5-10 years or whatever might be their accumulation goals.. and yeah, we cannot tell in advance what the BTC price is going to be so it might be a little bit of a fantasy land framework to be projecting potentially difficult to achieve quantities of bitcoin that you would like to achieve..and sometimes better to attempt to be much more realistic, even though there is nothing wrong with having both shorter term and longer term projections while realizing that there should be attempts for some realism in the projections.. especially the shorter term ones.. On a personal level, even if I might make some aspirational projections that I might not be able to reach, I would prefer to have projections that I know that I can reached mixed in there.

Quote from: Dickiy on Today at 04:58:42 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 10, 2023, 06:00:07 PM

Level of financial wealth is one thing and level of education is another, and they are not always correlated, so there could be ways that someone is not very well educated and has a lot of wealth or someone without a lot of wealthy who is well educated, and so if we are talking about the topic of bitcoin then the kind of education that is needed might be about personal financial management which can be gotten through experience rather than formal education, but sometimes formal education does help people to be able to learn how to learn because if someone is lacking in structure or learning how to learn, they might not have good ways of structuring their learning or even building good habits around what to learn and then how to reinforce it or to put the learnings to practice in order to potentially experience more learnings by putting the learnings into practice.

That makes sense, talking about someone who has wealth but does not have a higher education with someone who is highly educated but does not have wealth in terms of finance honestly this is quite confusing for me between having to choose which one is right and which is more appropriate to enter the Bitcoin accumulation according to the basic things that everyone should have in general when wanting to get involved in Bitcoin investment, but maybe we can see first from what type of education they undergo in their education, If their education is quite tied to what is needed by bitcoin accumulation as you say in terms of personal financial management then obviously they have the advantage of having insight into how to manage money, because indirectly it will make it easier for them in terms of their accumulation along with making it easier for them in terms of taking the best steps for budget problems that will be allocated to bitcoin with the circumstances and financial conditions they are experiencing.

Well let's try to stick with the $100 per week level of investing, and so a person who figures out his finances and maybe struggles to make sure that s/he is able to invest $100 per week for 10 years would have had invested $52,000, and so if his/her investments end up doing well, s/he may well be able to outperform someone who might have had 2x to 5x more disposable income but who did not invest with his/her extra income. I would consider that to be a kind of smarts, but there are still trade-offs, but any person can ONLY deal with his/her own situation, and s/he should not be getting overly distracted (or dissuaded) by the fact that some people might have way more resources.. including that the guy who has $200 or even $500 per week that he can spend on whatever he wants, but then he chooses not to invest, but the guy who has to struggle to get together $100 per week may well have ended up surpassing the guy who has more wealth.. because it stil might take the guy with more wealth some time to catch up to someone who both has accumulated assets such as bitcoin for 10 years and hopefully if the BTC had grown in value, then it will take the guy with higher income even longer to catch up and s/he might not ever be able to catch up.

Another thing is that once you start to have a decently large investment portfolio, you can sometimes end up using that in ways that you had not been able to use it when you were just starting out, so maybe the first few years are the hardest and it starts to get easier and easier as the investment portfolio gets larger, as long as you do not end up screwing it up somehow... and that is another place in which smarts come into place .. you need to try to be smart enough about your investment so that you know about ways that you could screw it up and you know how to attempt to avoid and/or to minimize your chances of screwing up your investment.

So you see with my investment into bitcoin I was able to get anywhere between 33x and 37x in 10 years, and surely I had been investing for more than 20 years prior to bitcoin and frequently I would ONLY get in the ballpark of a bit more than 50% price appreciation over 10 years... maybe slightly less than 6% of price appreciation per year on average... so gosh even doubling or tripling would have had been better than my historical performance in traditional assets.

Quote from: Dickiy on Today at 04:58:42 PM

So honestly I will not say that wealth is not important because obviously with you having enough financial strength you will also have a good chance in terms of accumulation, and also on the other hand I also will not say that education is useless, because obviously insight and knowledge, especially in terms of financial management, are very much needed to facilitate your involvement in bitcoin. So let's just find a middle point, for the problem of someone who has a higher education but maybe that education is not related to the financial field then I think it can still be utilized, I mean someone who is highly educated at least they must know how to learn well as you said, indirectly they have a broad enough insight in terms of learning, and with that in my opinion they will still be quite easy to learn the financial field along with how to learn well and properly, very different from people who are not educated, maybe they will not really know how to learn well in learning something they need. So the bottom line is honestly I quite agree with your assumption @jay that indeed those who are highly educated even though they may not be lucky enough to not have good finances but they have good/great potential in the matter of learning something especially financial management which will make it easier for them in terms of accumulation.

There are going to be a variety of circumstances, so a poor person who has enough time to learn and to be persistent in regards to personal finances may well be able to get ahead of a lot of people, but at the same time, he is not going to get ahead of the person who starts off with a lot more resources and who is also driven in the same kind of learning direction and who also might have better access in terms of abilities to learn from the people around him.

I have my doubts regarding how much utility comes from attempting to compare and/or compete with others in that regard, even though surely some of us do even if we might do it in our own sly little ways without necessarily confronting the other people.. and sure in some sense we might be competing with ourselves in terms of figuring out how much we might want to be able to improve our own conditions without screwing things up by trying too hard.

Quote from: jrrsparkles on Today at 06:33:24 PM

Quote from: adultcrypto on Today at 04:36:07 PM

Quote from: jrrsparkles on Today at 04:10:32 PM

I am not saying this is the best price to invest but just reminding that we are at the halfway stage of the current ATH which is a sign that the price may start to surge at any moment so if that happens the price will start to bump in no time which means you can buy at the perfect low from now but at least

It is really difficult getting the perfect price to buy as you suggested. This is the reason I am applying the DCA method and will continue to encourage everyone that is confused as to what price to buy, to continue to use the DCA method. This method takes away the worries that comes with know what price point to buy, your main target is to ensure certain amount at certain time you have set for yourself. It can be weekly or monthly or even as you deem fit. Being too concerned about the price to buy could be a source of confusion that may discourage you from buying, this is surely the best thing to do.

Let me remind you that DCA strategy doesn't give the guarantee for profits either.

Well, for bitcoin it worked perfectly and we discussed about the parting short term and long term goals in the investment will help more in accumulating the bitcoin than simply go all in for certain period which can be 5 or 10 years.

It is possible to do much better to go all in (or to lump sum invest), but many people either do not have the capital to do that, and sometimes they don't want to necessarily suffer various accounting (and maybe even tax consequences) to be moving value around in lump sums. So DCA is more practical than lump sum, even though there could be several kinds of instances in which some forms of lump sum would be better for those who might already have the capital available. the people with capital have more options, but it still does not necessarily mean that they would choose lump sum rather than maybe even combining lump sum with DCA and with buying the dip, even when they have the lump sum - let's say $12k in their bank account, versus the person who might have to invest $300 per week to get to $12k in 40 weeks.

Quote from: jrrsparkles on Today at 06:33:24 PM

But the current discussion is about buying the dip mean accumulating a whole chunk when the price is cheaper.

Yes and if you consider buying the dip, then you can consider other methods of accumulating BTC too in order to figure out if you want to try to buy the dip or if you might want to use one of the other methods or maybe you will combine the different kinds of methods rather than just getting stuck in one that might not feel as comfortable to rely on ONLY one method of accumulating bitcoin..

Quote from: jrrsparkles on Today at 06:33:24 PM

Quote from: adultcrypto on Today at 04:36:07 PM

Quote from: jrrsparkles on Today at 04:10:32 PM

if you buy at the current price there is likely to get atleast 300% returns at the peak of the bull run.

Do you know how high the price will go during the bull run? I'm asking because your statement of 300% profit for those who buy now suggest you are sure of what the price will be in the next bull run. Even when we expect price to rise so high in the next future, don't forget that Nothing is guaranteed. This should always guide your decision make because no one is sure how things will turn out in the future.

Your statement can be a motivation to some people to take uniformed risk that they might end up being in a hurry to sell to recoup their investment. Bitcoin requires patients that is why we are encouraged to buy with such amount that will not affect our daily important needs.

I am neither a wizard nor having time travel machine. Cheesy

I just want to make sure that at least in my statement prior 300% which is purely based on a rough technical analysis of Bitcoin's price chart. Let me explain that with the 2017 and 2021 bull run scenarios the pattern is almost similar in the previous cycles too.

in 2018 Bitcoin ATH was about 21K before the bear cycle kicks in and in the next bull run the ATH was around 65K so it was three times or 300% higher than the previous ATH so let me apply the same to this as well and for the benefit of uncertainty I just kept the value to 2 times or 200% from 65K for next ATH so lets compare the current price which is 40K for the sake of calculation and if ATH will be 130K then users who bought at 40K will get 300%.

Well, its all speculation and there is no investment called guaranteed returns.

You are kind of all over the place in terms of your logic regarding how you get to your numbers, and they are not unreasonable as one possible scenario... they seem a bit conservative scenario if we talk about the next ATH occurring potentially within the next 2 years... but yeah, the two difficulties of predicting price and predicting time, so we can attempt to predict each of them separately and then try to triangulate in order to try to get both which seems even more difficult.. so yeah, frequently it can be good to stick with ranges in terms of time and price...

Let's say that we presume that a new ATH comes on or before the end of 2025, then what would the amount be and what would be the odds, more or less?

Maybe something like this?

Bearish: $69,001 to $80k - 25%

Conservative: $80,001 to $150k - 35%

Middle: $150,001 to $500k - 30%

High: $500,001 to $1 million - 7.75%

Pie in the sky: $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2%

SuperCharged Pie in the sky: greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5%