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It seems to me it is quite likely PSG will beat Newcastle on their own stadium, and if that is the case the key here will be the result of the match between Milan and Dortmund, If Dortmund wins then it is over and PSG and Dortmund will move to the next round, if there is a tie then Dortmund could probably move to the next round with another tie against PSG due to their goal differential, and if Milan wins then they will still need to get a win over Newcastle, but it should not be that difficult as at that point Newcastle should be eliminated already and will have no chance to advance to the next round or to move to the Europa league.
For me the worst scenario is that PSG and Newcastle are eliminated here, and that is not very good considering the attributes they have should be a guarantee that they can qualify from the group stage. Furthermore, if you look at the next two matches, overall the four clubs have the ambition to beat each other. Even though Dortmund currently have the most points in group F, I still doubt they will qualify, even though I really understand that this is all just prejudice. Because we know that among the 8 groups here, group F is the most difficult to predict.
Dortmund or Milan are the most likely choices to qualify from this round and of course you know that of the 4 clubs in this group, Milan and Dortmund have more experience, even though PSG has mainstay players, the fact is that in the past few seasons they have always failed.
Next, Newcastle is actually a very worthy club to qualify with pretty good players, but I am not at all ready to continue to the next round because in terms of page numbers it is the same as PSG so I agree with you that PSG and Newcastle will most likely not qualify for this round.
It is true that in terms of experience AC Milan and Dortmund are better than PSG and Newcastle, this creates a difference in mentality between the four clubs in Group F. If this really happens, then PSG and Newcastle will suffer greatly and lament their fate. But before that, we will of course first see how the domestic matches of the four clubs in their respective leagues are going. Because, this will more or less have an impact on the match on matchday 5. On the other hand, if PSG fails, it will make Mbappe leave the club faster, maybe the January transfer market could be the right option.