Not to get too far off topic, but what do you think about my below numbers that relate to BTC prices until the end of 2025? Am I being unrealistic?
I am thinking that I might even be a bit more conservative (and realistic) than Saylor in regards to my timeline and then also the fact that I have various alternative scenarios and also I have odds assigned to each of the price ranges.. so his 10x from today of $370k in a year is quite a ways out there as compared to the way that I am framing it, and I would give his projection something less than 20% odds, maybe even less than 15% odds.. but it is surely not zero odds.. just seems to be a bit too much too soon.
Here's my off-the-top of my head updated odds for this upcoming cycle. which is working with UP only with a presumption that a new ATH will come prior to the end of 2025.
Let's say that we presume that a new ATH comes on or before the end of 2025, then what would the amount of the ATH be and what would be the odds of reaching (but not exceeding during the time period) that price range, more or less?
Maybe something like this?
Bearish: $69,001 to $80k - 25% [a 2.3x to 2.67x price appreciation from $30k]
Conservative: $80,001 to $150k - 35% [a 2.67x to 5x price appreciation from $30k]
Middle: $150,001 to $500k - 30% [a 5x to 16.67x price appreciation from $30k]
High: $500,001 to $1 million - 7.75% [a 16.67x to 33x price appreciation from $30k]
Pie in the sky: $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2% [a 33x to 83x price appreciation from $30k]
SuperCharged Pie in the sky: greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5% [more than a 83x price appreciation from $30k]
I don't know how you compunded this, but it's too unrealistic to me, ranging from each percent growth. I might still be a newbie to understand your analysis but I think your absomtion is very high. And unrealistic LoL.
For ease of reference, I have added how much of a price rise each of the categories would constitute in terms of using a $30k BTC price as a jumping off base (starting point for the run), and it seems to me that the main thing that I am assuming is that BTC prices will reach an ATH prior to the end of 2025, so then if it ends up that we get a new ATH prior to the end of 2025, then at least the lowest end of the ranges ends up being met. .By the way, after rethinking this matter, I am would ONLY give around 70% to 80% odds of the BTC price reaching new ATHs by the end of 2025, so even in my own head, my presumption has around 20% to 30% odds of not even being met.
Nonetheless, if the presumption is met and a new ATH is reached prior to the end of 2025, then the next question is merely a matter of how optimistic is too optimistic and thus becoming too unrealistic from your point of view.
It also seems to me that the earlier that BTC prices breaches into new ATH territory, then some of the upper price ranges become more realistic.
At this time, I consider my timeline and by outline of various price ranges and even my assigning of odds to be quite a bit more realistic than the narrowness of Saylor's prediction.. even though surely he could end up being right but maybe he is ONLY in the ballpark of 15% to 20% odds of being correct, and my chart covers way more possible outcomes, but yeah even with mine, we might have to concede that it is may well ONLY be around 70% to 80% odds that we will even reach a new ATH prior to the end of 2025, so the mere assumption of reaching a new ATH prior to the end of 2025 is not a 100% given.