If you have a long enough investment timeline, it still might be o.k. to hold through the UPs and the DOWNs, even though it may well be painful, so it is not always the better move to cash some out on the way up, especially if you are fairly new to bitcoin and you are still accumulating.. so since bitcoin has tended to be quite volatile (and there is no real reason to speculate that such volatility is going to stop in the short to medium term) it is likely that a lot of newbies might not be able to time their first cycle in a way that gives financial and/or psychological comfort to them no matter what they do...
It is not easy to control the psychological comfort in cases like this when it turns out to be money. This is one of the greatest feelings to be able to control when one has already committed themselves into it. Many advises have been given in the past, that one has to have made up their mind before venturing into bitcoin but more than 50% of these investors are still battling on how to control their psychology into not losing their money and this is normal for every being it just differs the way everyone can control theirs.
I am not sure if we are saying similar things or not Asiska02. Of course, I am recognizing and/or appreciating the difficulties that likely exist in the first several years of bitcoin investing and maybe even at least a whole cycle or more, but there could be some ways in which bitcoiners end up getting lucky in their entrance into bitcoin, but still the volatility can still remain something that causes psychological/financial pain, yet maybe continuing to buy on the way down and sell on the way up could establish some stability for some folks who might have had reached their accumulation goals, but for someone who is new, then just figuring out position size, whether just starting out with DCA or maybe combining DCA with lump sum buying, attempts at front loading and attempts at buying on the dip could help to alleviate some of the emotional tensions, but if there are too many emotional tensions, then that could largely be signs of being over invested and not really having a plan that is sufficiently suitable to the person's situation.
So, yeah, maybe I am contradicting myself to say that there might be almost no way to completely get rid of the tensions of a newbie, but position size likely does help to manage how much tensions might be felt in regards to volatility, and if there is quite a bit of mental and financial preparations for extreme volatility, then it becomes easier to deal with the extreme volatility if it ends up happening and even if it ends up happening to be more extreme than expected.
Newbies that have experience of this will now have better understanding of the market now and will plan well on when to accumulate and hold on or when to take profit and not greedy until the bear market approaches again before selling,
Yeah... but we are not talking about trading here... ... especially if we are referring to ways to accumulate BTC.. and how to figure out how to employ various ways to accumulate BTC, and surely these are more difficult times to justify ongoing accumulation of BTC when we see the BTC price going shooting up 40% or so in a couple of weeks, and so then guys waiting to buy the dip might not get dips that are sufficient enough to get them to buy.
because that’s the biggest regrettable feeling one can have again after waiting for a long time for the money to grow. It is good to learn from others experience while also learning how to manage your funds and keep secure your investment before selling them out for profit.
Again, you are seeming to focus on selling BTC for profits, which is not what we are talking about in this thread, even though we might need to consider what to do if we reach our goals. whether that might be 1 BTC, 10 BTC, 21BTC, 50BTC or some other amount.. and so if we feel that we have enough or even more than enough, it hardly makes any sense to think about selling them for profits, even though there might be some selling of them in order to attempt to maintain the portfolio value in some kind of a way to protect from downside risk.
Let's say that you have been in bitcoin for right around 6 years, and you have been buying between $150 and $250 of bitcoin per week, depending on your budget, and your goal had been to get to 70 BTC by this year or alternatively to get to 60 BTC by next year, and right now, you ONLY have 50 BTC, so you already realized that with your kind of budget and what you have been doing over the past years and you even got to know yourself pretty well, you already know that you cannot meet your goal to get to 70 BTC by this year, and probably you will not be able to meet your goal of 60 BTC by next year, but you know that you are real close to meeting your goals, and you might realize that 50 BTC is enough for the coming years, but you are not quite sure. You may well be using the 200-week moving average to measure the value of your BTC, so you know that when the BTC price is significantly higher than the 200-week moving average you are able to sell some BTC for higher than the amount than you value them at, but you still might question the extent to which selling more BTC helps you out to reach your accumulation goals.. because you are close to reaching it, but still not quite there. If we project a few years into the future, 50 BTC or maybe even a few more BTC such as 51-55 BTC may well be enough for those further out timeframes, so sometimes guys might need to be flexible in terms of their timelines, but they still might not feel that they have reached a point of selling BTC on the way up if they have not quite gotten to their goal and maybe there would be a preference to exceed the goal rather than merely meet the goal before selling as a kind of maintenance practice would become part of the ways of managing your bitcoin stash.
It is easy to look at what the BTC price did after the fact and to conclude what you "should have done" which many times is ONLY clear when looking back at the facts, so there is really no easy way to know what was going to happen with any level of meaningful specifics in order to really be able to play those waves without just ending up getting lucky, and it seems that we should not be striving to gamble with our bitcoin investments in games of luck kinds of plays rather than taking more solid strategies that might just involve ongoing and persistent accumulation until we reach our target level of accumulation and maybe even over accumulation and then if profits might come after that then maybe we can adjust our strategy from accumulation into maintenance.. Even though there are some folks who could come into bitcoin with lump sum investing, for a lot of normal folks it could take 4-10 years or longer just to get from BTC accumulation stage into BTC maintenance stage. .so it seems a bit fruitless to be kicking yourself for not playing BTC price waves as good as you could have played them.
Bitcoin investment holding is not meant to be played, it is full of volatility and one cannot tell what the next move of the market is. Bitcoin investment is the most easiest investment one can think of when it comes to investing their money for profit in the long run. Just buy some, hold on to them,
sell when you’ve reached or hit the target you want.
You keep repeating this selling when you get to your target, and I doubt that longer term bitcoin HODLers are thinking about bitcoin in terms of selling the whole thing, even though selling some BTC might become a part of any HODLers maintenance strategy once s/he has reached and/or exceeded his/her target amounts. If you sell, then where are you going to put the value? Are you selling to buy back or selling in order to buy some other asset class? or to consume? It does not make any sense to sell just to consume.. but there could be ways to sell a certain percentage every quarter, or every year or even every 4 years if there is a kind of fear for some kind of a market correction and a desire to protect oneself from a potential market correction.
When it doesn’t hit the target you set for it due to the volatile nature of the market and the bull market already over, it is good to sell them off and get the profit already accumulated. Waiting for the bull run to come when it seems unlikely to come at that time again is just like gambling and if you gamble your money, you’ll end up losing more money and get little or no profit for all the wait over the years.
You are trying to suggest that you are not gambling becuae you happen to know when the top is going to be and when the bottom is going to be. That is close to crazy in terms of the distinction that you are trying to make when guys are screwing around with their whole holdings. I can maybe see once you have reached or exceeded your target then maybe you sell a certain percentage? perhaps 10% to 25%? but still that would be risky because if you are just barely at your target, then as soon as you sell, you are going to be 10% to 25% below your target and you won't have the BTC anymore. Can you see how some of the longer term HODLers are thinking about this differently? It seems strange to believe that you are trying to reach your target in order that you can sell everything, yet for me it does not seem strange to believe that once you reach your target, then you go into another kind of a phase in which you have more flexibility, and maybe you are not so focused on ONLY accumulating BTC but you are also focused on ways to maintain your stash, perhaps within a kind of system and/or guidelines. It seems that one thing that you (Asiska02) seem to be assuming, which is different from me, is that you go from the accumulation phase to the liquidation phase and you are completely skipping the maintenance stage in the middle.. so for each of the stages, there are early, middle and late stages, so each stage is going to have some differing perspectives from each other, but they still might contain some elements of the other stages, depending on where you are at.
Of course, you (Asiska02) are free to go straight from BTC accumulation stage to liquidation stage, but it seems to me that you will end up losing a lot of the value and benefits of maintaining a decently-sized stash of BTC that you had worked up to accumulating and the many options that likely come from maintaining it rather than merely selling it all for worthless fiat or where-ever else you were considering putting your value.