2% is too optimistic? And what about my assignment of 0.5% odds for more than $2.5million. is that too optimistic too?  

>>>>>"Pie in the sky:  $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2%  [a 33x to 83x price appreciation from $30k]"<<<<

>>>>>"SuperCharged Pie in the sky:  greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5%  [more than a 83x price appreciation from $30k]"<<<<

How would you propose that we fix what you believe to be too optimistic.. since I already put out those numbers we should not remove the numbers, but instead assign lower odds to them.. so what kind of numbers do you believe to be more realistic for those two upper categories?  Are they zero or is there some kind of a non zero probability that you could imagine that justifies assigning them  some kind of probability.. right now.. not 6 months down the road, but now.

Remember in 2013 we had more than a 100x price appreciation in just one year from BTC prices less than $10 and going to right around $1,163.

Remember in 2017 we had right around a 78x price appreciation in two years going from $250 to $19,666.

Remember in 2021 we had right around a 16.5x price appreciation in two-ish years going from $4,200 to $69k.

I find it difficult to merely assign a narrow set of scenarios and thereafter expect BTC to comply, even if you consider that your set of scenarios is the most probable, and you might end up being correct, but that surely does not mean that other scenarios are not potentially reasonable and/or deserving some kind of a consideration and/or probability that is more than just dismissing the other variations as if they were zero% odds, merely because for some reason you seem to have aspirations to be a wannabe sorcerer.