For me no team asides of Manchester City and Real Madrid can have a chance right now to become the champion of the season of UCL, the 15% for Bayern can be accurate but also overstimate, because they havent played against any good team until now. And this Bayern is going from less to more, but lets see how they do against big teams, against a weak Man utd they strugled a lot.
I couldn't agree any less with you, Manchester city and Real Madrid not only perform so well in their group in the champions league but they aswell perform brilliantly in their various domestic league where they are at the top of the table showing how well informed they are in their strength, they both have some level of consistency aswell.
Bayern Munich isn't a team to underestimate because their domestic league where they play too isn't an easy one, they also have it very competitive there aswell yet they are doing well and back at the champions league they aren't performing any less although it seems as if they are yet to meet teams who are in better form as compared to those in their group but then they will most likely still have they form to face other tougher team after the group stage and probably get a good result.