For me no team asides of Manchester City and Real Madrid can have a chance right now to become the champion of the season of UCL, the 15% for Bayern can be accurate but also overstimate, because they havent played against any good team until now. And this Bayern is going from less to more, but lets see how they do against big teams, against a weak Man utd they strugled a lot.
Manchester United is a good team, if you don't think they are good then I have no reason why Manchester United can score 3 goals at the Allianz Arena. Manchester City and Bayern Munich are the two favorite teams this season, while I agree that Real Madrid is another favorite candidate.
Real Madrid must be admitted to have weaknesses that could harm them in big matches against strong teams. They also don't have too strong opponents even though Napoli could be the closest team to qualify from the same group to the last 16. I think Real Madrid will have a hard time when they enter the knockout stages, unless they get weak opponents.