For me no team asides of Manchester City and Real Madrid can have a chance right now to become the champion of the season of UCL, the 15% for Bayern can be accurate but also overstimate, because they havent played against any good team until now. And this Bayern is going from less to more, but lets see how they do against big teams, against a weak Man utd they strugled a lot.
I honestly don't know if Manchester City will be able to win the Champions League this year but it's still too early to say, it's certainly one of the probable winners together with Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, but pay attention to one detail, this year whoever wins qualifies to the Club World Cup and Manchester City has already qualified together with Real Madrid and Chelsea, the last slot remains for the winners of the Champions League and therefore Bayern Munich Inter PSG Barcelona have one more reason to try for the final victory, in reality also Bayern Munich and Inter are already mathematically qualified, but presenting themselves as winners is an additional reason for pride