For me no team asides of Manchester City and Real Madrid can have a chance right now to become the champion of the season of UCL, the 15% for Bayern can be accurate but also overstimate, because they havent played against any good team until now. And this Bayern is going from less to more, but lets see how they do against big teams, against a weak Man utd they strugled a lot.
No doubt about the quality of these teams with Manchester City is surely having edge but after them, I have feeling Bayern Munich and Real Madrid both are having same advantage and as their performance is going we can expect them into last four if we have no clash in early matches for the last and fourth team we will have tough competition between few teams because these all are having same level of quality but still few clubs like Inter Milan and Arsenal are better.
At the top Manchester City is surely hot favorite for another double, but their challengers are also doing their best which is going to create good entertainment for the soccer fans in coming matches specially Real Madrid performance is impressive even mostly were feeling they are having problems due to lacking of quality striker.
Manchester City still remains the favorite team to win the Champions league because for sometime now I consider them to be the best team in Champions league, but I think this season their are other tough teams like Real Madrid , Barcelona and Bayern Munich.apart from Manchester City I would want other teams to go for Champions league Cup this season. Manchester City, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich they all have the same football strengths with Manchester City which I know it won't be easy for Manchester city to grab the opportunity this time.