For me no team asides of Manchester City and Real Madrid can have a chance right now to become the champion of the season of UCL, the 15% for Bayern can be accurate but also overstimate, because they havent played against any good team until now. And this Bayern is going from less to more, but lets see how they do against big teams, against a weak Man utd they strugled a lot.
No doubt about the quality of these teams with Manchester City is surely having edge but after them, I have feeling Bayern Munich and Real Madrid both are having same advantage and as their performance is going we can expect them into last four if we have no clash in early matches for the last and fourth team we will have tough competition between few teams because these all are having same level of quality but still few clubs like Inter Milan and Arsenal are better.
At the top Manchester City is surely hot favorite for another double, but their challengers are also doing their best which is going to create good entertainment for the soccer fans in coming matches specially Real Madrid performance is impressive even mostly were feeling they are having problems due to lacking of quality striker.
For the group phase they are now comfortable and certainly qualified but when talking to something more conical like the quarter-finals or semi-finals things like this I think they have to see their opponents in the drawing later, because after all this will determine whether they can qualify for the next phase or not.
For example last season when some big clubs had to meet from the start (knock out phase) such as Manchester City who had to face PSG, Bayern and Madrid which of course this is an unexpected condition where the drawing is not profitable considering a big match like this is like a final at an inopportune time so this season does not rule out also like that when drawing later there will definitely be one or 2 matches that will show the final prematurely because some big candidates allow meeting.