I am not sure if bitcoin price dynamics can exactly be boiled down in the ways that you are attempting to describe because sometimes there is both retail purchasing and there can also be manipulation, and sometimes we can start to develop false senses that the BTC price is going to continue to go up (forever or whatever without a correction), and then all of a sudden, we end up getting a 30% correction.. so it is not necessarily easy to tell which way the BTC price is going to go in the short-term even though sometimes we can end up getting a bit elated about the fact that the BTC price keeps going up, causing our wealth to increase if we already have bitcoin, and also causing pain for the bitcoin naysayers, the bears, the shorters, the no coiners, the low coiners, the fence-sitters, the shitcoin pumpeners and perhaps a few other categories that I am leaving out... we cannot always determine when the UPPity is going to stop.. and sure it could stop right now, it could wait until $40k-ish, it could wait until somewhere between $50-$55k or maybe it could even go higher before it meaningfully corrects.. but at the same time, I have some difficulties imagining that we would not have resistance at some point before $55k, but I am not going to hold my breath in either direction..   If you look at a chart from early to mid 2019, you will see that we had 3.5x in 3months, and I doubt that the current market is any weaker than that market, even if a 3.5x in 3 months might have less than a 15% chance of happening, even if we use $27.5k from a few weeks ago as our tentative starting point.