Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
JayJuanGee
on 17/11/2023, 22:10:16 UTC
 Before starting Bitcoin investment you must have prepared yourself for period of time financially because you know what it will take a and how long for that investment to mature either long term for 6-10 years or short term for monthly /weekly, and so your source of income should be enormous on other to meet up your other demands and need .
Having  a fixed amount set aside from your monthly income is not a bad idea ,so that it will not affect your DCA strategy used in investing.

  Let's take for instance  in building a house ,you just don't stand up  one day and say you want to build without planning for it and knowing how much to set aside for the project, is either you have been saving for it or have already gotten the resources for the building and how long it will take for the completion that will make your target and budget easier for you to pursue and it will be easily achieved and you will build it according to your capacity . The same way goes in investing Bitcoin you do invest above what you can afford .
 But remember investing what you can afford is the best either 5-10% or 30% and more.
Indeed, this is a real example if we look at the life of building an average house, which we rarely see unless it is someone who has enough funds and is an established entrepreneur.

Well, inspired by that too. Maybe when it comes to investing in BTC, people are rarely able to buy at once, for example 1 BTC. Well, with the DCA method this is another way to get there. although little by little and the times are also supportive for now it is still cheap because BTC is still on its way to a new ATH. Possible.
Yeah is obvious that as a less privilege it will be almost impossible buying one whole Bitcoin at a time but however there is a very chance that if you give yourself a target you can achieve it, that's why investment on Bitcoin is not like stock investment that would require you to invest a huge sum of money, but on the contrary even if you don't have much money to invest on Bitcoin but you have a target or goal to have a certain amount of Bitcoin in the future could easily achieve it by adjusting yourself in any amount that suit your financial state and keep accumulating with a targeted number of years you will see yourself as a holder of Bitcoin.

I agree with everything that you said Roseline492 - except that you seem to be suggesting that people can achieve almost anything that they aspire to, yet at the same time you acknowledge that it may well be out of reach for some people to have 1 BTC as their goal... . .not only is it unrealistic for some people, it might not be achievable absent being able to reach a bunch of intermediary goals first.  So if someone is just getting started in bitcoin and the most that they can muster up is the buying of $10 of bitcoin per week or per month, based on what we know right now and we can reasonably project about aspects of the future, they are going to likely need to accomplish a lot of intermediary goals in order to get to 1 BTC in 10 years or even in 20 years, and if they can project that they will be able to get to $100 per week in 5 years and $1,000 per week in 10 years, then maybe they will be able to reach 1 BTC in 20 years... maybe?  There are a lot of unknowns in there and probably not even very good kinds of goals in the first place.

If someone is brand new to bitcoin, but already has been working 5 years or more, and they are still ONLY able to muster up $10 per week, then they are likely NOT in a very lucrative path in life in terms of the quantity of their income.  If someone is real young and in college then maybe they are still trying to figure out possible career paths in which their income might be able to become higher, but they still might have to figure out some specifics in regards to how they might end up earning higher income, and I doubt that the problem is solved merely by earning value in bitcoin, because for whatever skills that anyone has, they still have to figure out who is going to be paying them for their skills - without necessarily going into a life of scamming people through shitcoins or something like that, which sadly is the path that some people choose to take in order to increase their income.

I guess my main quibble with you Roseline492 is that you seemed to have some kind of an underlying idea in your post that a person can set their aspirations however they like, but it really seems that the aspirations need to be realistic, even if there are aspects of the aspirations that might be difficult to achieve, and maybe focusing on the number of BTC to accumulate is not really a concrete (or even important) enough of a goal.

Investment is not a bed of roses that you invest one day and next day or week you will get the profit.
Every investment has a risk of loss, but at least in Bitcoin we can minimize losses by not selling it when the price goes down.

That is not how you minimize loss.  You minimize loss by not investing more than you can afford to lose.  So yeah maybe you do not sell on the way down and you ONLY buy when the BTC price goes down, but at the same time, you still could end up losing all your bitcoin, and if you keep buying as the price is dropping, you could end up losing even more and more and more, especially if the BTC price never ends up recovering enough for you to get your investment amount back.

Yes, perhaps among those who are still laypeople, of course, they think that investing in Bitcoin has a bigger risk because the price fluctuates, but the loss is purely due to their own decision.

Trading does increase the kinds of risks, and so sometimes the traders could end up either losing all their money faster or they could even lose more than the amount of bitcoin that they buy.. buy using leverage.  Leverage in either direction could contribute to an investment like bitcoin becoming a loser, even though so many people who have ONLY bought bitcoin (and who have ONLY gone long bitcoin) have tended to end up being in profits sooner or later.. especially the longer that they are in bitcoin, and the most that they are risking is 100% of what they put into bitcoin, but so many folks have ended up in profits, and even now if you have been in bitcoin for 2 years or longer then you have pretty good chances of being in profits if you continued to invest along the way, yet of course, there are folks who may well have had front loaded their investment into BTC at prices higher than today (higher than $36,400) and even if some of them continued to buy bitcoin, they still might be in the negative if they invested higher amounts of their value when the BTC price was higher than it is today...

So sometimes it can take 3-4 years or more just to get back in the black, even with a strategy that is ONLY buying BTC and not engaging in other kinds of tactics to trade and/or to leverage.  And, even getting back in the black is not guaranteed, but surely it seems that if someone has invested in such a way that they continue to buy over several years, even if they front-loaded their investment at higher prices, there are decent odds that they are going to get back in the black, even if it is not guaranteed.. and since it is not guaranteed, that is why people have to choose a position size that is not too much and they are willing to lose the amount invested in the event that the BTC price does not return to prices higher than their earlier purchase prices nor to prices that are higher than their average costs per BTC.

Maybe those who lose are those with weak hands who are unable to survive when the market is down.  such actions could result in them incurring losses if they sell it. In long-term investments, of course they are ready for all the consequences they will face. They must have a target to achieve big profits and not sell when the market is red.

That is one of the problems of buying too much BTC at once (such as lump sum investing and/or front-loading the BTC investment) rather than being prepared to continue to buy on the way down, and realizing that there is a need to buy no more than you can afford to lose.. really afford to lose by being committed to riding the investment to zero if the BTC price keeps going down rather than continuing to go up.

In comparison, Bitcoin can have a greater ROI compared to other investments and this has been proven by the increase in the price of Bitcoin which reached $69k at the previous ATH.

We can see that price history already happened, but it does not prove that BTC prices will return to such prices, even though surely it seems that the investment thesis for bitcoin today is stronger than what it was in 2021, but we might not know all of the facts that we need to know, and maybe there could be developments that contribute towards no more pumps of BTC and the possibility that BTC prices never get back above $37k (for example) or even more difficulties to get back to $69k..

Sure in recent times, I had already made some posts that I believe that bitcoin has something between 70% and 80% odds of reaching $69k or higher before the end of 2025;  however, 70% to 80% odds are still not even close to 100% odds.. that means that in my own thinking there are 20% to 30% odds that $69k will not be reached prior to the end of 2025.  And, hey I am not claiming that I know anything beyond my own opinion being similar to the opinions of others, yet I believe my opinion is stronger and more based in reality than someone who might still be considering that the odds of getting to $69k in the next 2.1 years is close to 95% or even 100%, and so sure you are free to believe whatever you like, but I think that it is a bit unrealistic to be placing too high of odds on various UPside scenarios and completely negating the odds of downside scenarios, even if the odds for up happen to be greater than the odds for down...

The mere fact that the odds are greater does not mean that the scenario with the greater odds is going to end up playing out.  If we are in BTC, we should know those kinds of things and also practice risk management behaviors that account for possible scenarios in which lower probability outcomes might end up playing out rather than the higher probability outcomes.

So, don't assume that Bitcoin will give you profits quickly. To achieve big profits, we need to be patient and ready to invest in the long term. Buying aggressively and taking advantage of falling price opportunities allows you to profit more efficiently when the market becomes bullish.

I agree with these ideas.. except to the extent that you (ginsan) seem to believe that the long term causes a guaranteed that you are going to end up being profitable, which it does not.