When supply shock
?
A year after the halving like always would be my guess. Takes time for the market to absorb the selling from those who bought to ride up to the halving, then it takes time to break through established resistance. Finally, it takes time for the market to move up once the supply does dry up. Then you get FOMO and a bubble. I’d say those waiting for the top better be prepared to wait until summer of 2025 at least.
I think that it will be earlier, this time.
Momentum-wise prior bull peaked in April even though it crawled to a nominal new high on November before quickly reversing.
Prior halving occurred in May 2020, so I expect this time we will peak in March of 2025 or thereabouts, maybe even as early as Jan-Feb 2025 considering that bull energy would be likely spent early due to ETF and halving being close to each other, most likely.
Early 2020/covid taught me a lesson to not count the spoils of bitcoin investment too early.
Maybe we will still have an unpredictable nasty surprise before halving, but as the time passes by, the probability of such event negates, of course, although we still don't know how bitcoin would react to a prolonged recession.