A few facts that haven't been mentioned here:
* That losing sequence went 1/16, 1/8, 1/4, 1/2, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 - so 11 losing bets in a row.
* That guy had been coming to the site day after day, and winning 10 BTC each day on 3 different accounts. So 30 BTC per day.
* This is the first time he busted - previously he only got up to 64 twice and won it both times.
* He's still around 460 BTC *up* overall.
* Here's a chart of the combined profit against number of rolls from the 3 accounts:
So while it's true that in general martingale isn't a winning strategy, in this case it all worked out pretty well for him!
Edit: here's a list of the bet details:
Edit 2: here's a list of all his bets over 20 BTC. Notice he won 2 out of 3 at 64 BTC and 9 out of 12 at 32 BTC!
* That losing sequence went 1/16, 1/8, 1/4, 1/2, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 - so 11 losing bets in a row.
* That guy had been coming to the site day after day, and winning 10 BTC each day on 3 different accounts. So 30 BTC per day.
* This is the first time he busted - previously he only got up to 64 twice and won it both times.
* He's still around 460 BTC *up* overall.
* Here's a chart of the combined profit against number of rolls from the 3 accounts:
So while it's true that in general martingale isn't a winning strategy, in this case it all worked out pretty well for him!
Edit: here's a list of the bet details:
Quote
+------------+---------+------+-------+----------+
| betid | bet | high | nonce | time |
+------------+---------+------+-------+----------+
| 1063871599 | 64.0000 | 0 | 23 | 09:59:27 |
| 1063871035 | 32.0000 | 1 | 22 | 09:59:17 |
| 1063870799 | 16.0000 | 0 | 21 | 09:59:13 |
| 1063870573 | 8.0000 | 1 | 20 | 09:59:09 |
| 1063870357 | 4.0000 | 0 | 19 | 09:59:05 |
| 1063870086 | 2.0000 | 1 | 18 | 09:59:00 |
| 1063869842 | 1.0000 | 0 | 17 | 09:58:56 |
| 1063869565 | 0.5000 | 1 | 16 | 09:58:51 |
| 1063869383 | 0.2500 | 0 | 15 | 09:58:48 |
| 1063869197 | 0.1250 | 1 | 14 | 09:58:45 |
| 1063869067 | 0.0625 | 0 | 13 | 09:58:43 |
+------------+---------+------+-------+----------+
| betid | bet | high | nonce | time |
+------------+---------+------+-------+----------+
| 1063871599 | 64.0000 | 0 | 23 | 09:59:27 |
| 1063871035 | 32.0000 | 1 | 22 | 09:59:17 |
| 1063870799 | 16.0000 | 0 | 21 | 09:59:13 |
| 1063870573 | 8.0000 | 1 | 20 | 09:59:09 |
| 1063870357 | 4.0000 | 0 | 19 | 09:59:05 |
| 1063870086 | 2.0000 | 1 | 18 | 09:59:00 |
| 1063869842 | 1.0000 | 0 | 17 | 09:58:56 |
| 1063869565 | 0.5000 | 1 | 16 | 09:58:51 |
| 1063869383 | 0.2500 | 0 | 15 | 09:58:48 |
| 1063869197 | 0.1250 | 1 | 14 | 09:58:45 |
| 1063869067 | 0.0625 | 0 | 13 | 09:58:43 |
+------------+---------+------+-------+----------+
Edit 2: here's a list of all his bets over 20 BTC. Notice he won 2 out of 3 at 64 BTC and 9 out of 12 at 32 BTC!
Quote
+------------+--------+------+---------------------+--------+
| betid | uid | bet | date | profit |
+------------+--------+------+---------------------+--------+
| 954417255 | 444612 | 32 | 2014-04-01 04:47:48 | 31.36 |
| 972923827 | 390060 | 32 | 2014-04-04 10:07:09 | 31.36 |
| 979554255 | 443793 | 32 | 2014-04-05 10:04:31 | 31.36 |
| 997244196 | 444612 | 32 | 2014-04-08 07:21:56 | 31.36 |
| 1001940814 | 390060 | 32 | 2014-04-09 05:42:09 | -32 |
| 1001941194 | 390060 | 64 | 2014-04-09 05:42:15 | 62.72 |
| 1019802937 | 443793 | 32 | 2014-04-11 23:58:17 | 31.36 |
| 1025835234 | 443793 | 32 | 2014-04-12 23:45:06 | 31.36 |
| 1025845181 | 443793 | 32 | 2014-04-12 23:47:22 | -32 |
| 1025845427 | 443793 | 64 | 2014-04-12 23:47:25 | 62.72 |
| 1041768962 | 390060 | 32 | 2014-04-15 11:33:18 | 31.36 |
| 1041786397 | 390060 | 32 | 2014-04-15 11:37:03 | 31.36 |
| 1057748701 | 444612 | 32 | 2014-04-18 04:03:02 | 31.36 |
| 1063871035 | 444612 | 32 | 2014-04-19 09:59:17 | -32 |
| 1063871599 | 444612 | 64 | 2014-04-19 09:59:27 | -64 |
+------------+--------+------+---------------------+--------+
| betid | uid | bet | date | profit |
+------------+--------+------+---------------------+--------+
| 954417255 | 444612 | 32 | 2014-04-01 04:47:48 | 31.36 |
| 972923827 | 390060 | 32 | 2014-04-04 10:07:09 | 31.36 |
| 979554255 | 443793 | 32 | 2014-04-05 10:04:31 | 31.36 |
| 997244196 | 444612 | 32 | 2014-04-08 07:21:56 | 31.36 |
| 1001940814 | 390060 | 32 | 2014-04-09 05:42:09 | -32 |
| 1001941194 | 390060 | 64 | 2014-04-09 05:42:15 | 62.72 |
| 1019802937 | 443793 | 32 | 2014-04-11 23:58:17 | 31.36 |
| 1025835234 | 443793 | 32 | 2014-04-12 23:45:06 | 31.36 |
| 1025845181 | 443793 | 32 | 2014-04-12 23:47:22 | -32 |
| 1025845427 | 443793 | 64 | 2014-04-12 23:47:25 | 62.72 |
| 1041768962 | 390060 | 32 | 2014-04-15 11:33:18 | 31.36 |
| 1041786397 | 390060 | 32 | 2014-04-15 11:37:03 | 31.36 |
| 1057748701 | 444612 | 32 | 2014-04-18 04:03:02 | 31.36 |
| 1063871035 | 444612 | 32 | 2014-04-19 09:59:17 | -32 |
| 1063871599 | 444612 | 64 | 2014-04-19 09:59:27 | -64 |
+------------+--------+------+---------------------+--------+