Looking at recent performances Chelsea is definitely the favorite to win because they only have 2 draws and a loss in their last 8 matches which I think is an improvement for them and Newcastle’s last 2 matches was a loss, they lost to Bournemouth that sits close to the relegation zone so Chelsea can capitalize on this but Newcastle will not just sit back without fighting back and they are also good in playing big matches.
Maybe Chelsea is only slightly ahead with their current performance but that doesn't mean they can win easily against Newcastle. Here statistics can have a full impact on performance and I think sometimes they don't really matter given the current condition of each team. Newcastle are the hosts but not only that, they also have to clean up their minor record immediately and must be able to get 3 points again after they failed to do so in the previous 5 matches. Apart from that, of course they will not accept it if Manchester United is above them and they will try again to reach their previous place. So Chelsea will have to fight hard if they want to beat Newcastle with such high motivation and it will never be easy.