You could end up screwing yourself if you are waiting around too much rather than just buying and letting the chips fall where they will, even if you end up having a higher cost per BTC, but if you plan on staying in BTC for 4-10 years or more than it may end up doing you better to get your mindset correct in terms of buying BTC ongoingly and persistently until you reach a certain stash level..
I'll just short. This is something that some people have not actually felt, especially those who have just invested, but if they have already experienced take profit from BTC investment, for example as you stated above and the duration, perhaps their expectations will also be very different. They will always want to continue to increase their ownership.
I have never used shorts, and they seem to be unnecessary for guys who are still building their BTC holdings..
I am not sure if it is worse than selling because I suppose it depends on how the short is set up in terms of collateral and if there is a use of margin, and if there is no use of margin and it is more of a straight forward short, then to the extent that is even relevant within this particular thread, I cannot really understand why it would be a good idea absent someone who might have been building his BTC stash for several years.. maybe even more than 5 years... which surely does not seem to be the case that brought up this scenario through Justbillywitt.