People do seem to be top oriented, but bottoms seem to be more important for valuing and evaluating your investment.... at least if someone is a long term HODLer and even still mostly considering himself as a BTC accumulator.

I suppose when people do not ladder sell at various increments, then they get kind of obsessed about when to sell and how much to sell.. and sure if you don't want to sell in $1k increments (or my current $1,500 increments, then maybe you can opt for $8k or $12k increments.. or yeah, surely nothing wrong with round numbers when talking about increments, as long as you are not placing your actual sell orders at round numbers.

Even if you don't use increments, you are likely still not going to get much closer to the top by trying to guess the top.

Yeah some people believe that they have tops figured out, and they are really hard to know, so maybe that is another reason why bottoms are better because even though bottoms are also not really knowable, they seem to be quite a bit more knowable than bottoms, so maybe that is a reason why I seem to like bottoms much more than tops.


One of the great things about using ranges, it is nearly inevitable that you are going to be correct.. or at least "kind of correct."


Even a 30% correction does not quite bring us below $31k... and surely, I am not even saying any kind of "meaningful" correction is necessary.. but I could surely imagine 20% or more at some point.. and right now that would be right around $35k.. but if we wait until we get to $55k (that would be "up before down"), then a 20% only brings us back to our current price. so maybe go up to $55k and then get up to a 36% correction .. that would be a correction back down to $35k.

I am not even saying that any of that would be necessary, but one of the tendency with some of the BIGGER corrections is to really take advantage of momentum, when momentum is starting to go in your favor to really push it.. but hey, who can really say.. ... even though BIG corrections make more sense now, and not going back below the 200-week moving average which is currently at $29,161 (and moving up around $25 per day).

I think that the guys who were calling for those kinds of big corrections that were to take us 10% or more below the 200-week moving average were just way  too hopeful, even though we did get quite a bit of time that was more than 10% below the 200-week moving average, and maybe those times are completely gone.  Maybe? perhaps?


That is also the shitcoin USDC.. which is even worse than USD T.. not that I am against Tether in any kind of substantive or meaningful way.


Doesn't hurt to have a few "down before up" proclamations weaved into the mix.

#justsaying.