You assumption is based on a mempool 0f 300 kb if i'm not wrong , correct ? What happens with a mempool of very big limit and a big blocksize ? Maybe i got things wrong , i'd like to hear your thoughts .
Edit . at what size do you think blocksize should be increased right now ? And why is idiotic to reach visa levels ? There's been 13 years of bitcoin existence , with billions of transaction across all projects , why would be idiotic to gather those transactions to the most secure blockchain ? People are willing to pay to transact , just not in btc .
its got nothing to do with mempool size..
even if mempool was 500mb but only had 150mb of transactions in there. pools can still deny adding transactions below a threshold. leaving people waiting and needing to RBF to reach whatever threshold mining pools want
so in a 4decades in future scenario when mining pools are going to demand fee's they can just leave the cheap fee tx in mempool to fester for 2 weeks, causing people to RBF upbid their fees to get recognised
as for leaping to "visa levels"
that debate replaces "scaling" by suggesting the only option is "gigabyte blocks by midnight" to then argue that the network is not ready to even do that. to hope it ends the debate about any type of scaling.. and yea idiots been playing that bait trick for years
the actual scaling is not just "jump blocksize to XX"
its more nuanced
a. punish the frequent spammers. if it consts only them excess fee, they transact less. meaning more genuine people can take the space
b. leaner transactions. punish or prevent bloated transactions, meaning more genuine people can take the space
c. remove the blocksize miscount of 4mb (1mb base+3mb witness) cludge. so that any and all transactions get full utility of the full 4mb space
d. SCALE the blocksize in incremental amounts over time.. no sudden leaps to stupid amounts