So basically I remember JJG fucking around and saying there is no 4 year cycle (at least 2 years ago)
Doesn't sound like the same JJG that I know.
<snip>
When I look at the reward to fee next 3 ½ ings if miners keep force fees to stay at 30 stats
10 percent fee per block now
18 percent fee per block 2024
31 percent fee per block. 2028
47 percent fee per block 2032
what does all of the above mean for supply shock?
say
6.95000 now
3.82500 2024
2.26250 2028
1.48125 2032
if fees flatten out at .7 btc per block. the ½ effect ends by 2036 or sooner if fees go to a steady 1 btc a block
You come up with some doosies, sometimes... and yeah there are going to be changes in the ratios in which miners are more dependent upon fees rather than subsidies..
so yeah, each halvening we will see the extent to which the BTC price goes up which would be at least doubled ever four years for the halvening to have the same effect on the reward... so surely, it is difficult to predict that many legs in advance without necessarily knowing price, and if BTC price doubles every 4 years, then perhaps that is enough to have the subsidies to have the same effect, but we know adoption is going up too.. so usage and fees are likely to go up, as you project... so in the end ? what is the punchline?
[/quote]
<snip>
[/quote]
JJG we did
50 + 0.05 = 50.05
25 + 0.05 = 25.05 this looks like a real true ½ ing to me
12.5 + 0.10 = 12.60 " " " " "
6.25 + 0.70 = 6.95 " "
3.125 + 0.70 = 3.825 this looks almost a ½ ing
1.5625 + 0.70 = 2.2625 this is not what any ½ ing has ever looked like 4 years and 4 months
0.78125 + 0.70 = 1.48125 this is certainly far different than anything we have seen in terms of ½ ing
So my point is do we see unexpected changes in 2024 a different cycle pattern
We will certainly see them in 2028 as the ½ ing will not really be one
2028 is not that far from today do other see this and plan to exit sooner than you predict? Or for that matter does this act to drive price up more than expected.
the 2024 to 2028 time slot is truly "different" than any prior as there will not be a supply drop of great significance.