That is also quite true in what you said based on existing experience, because I also quite believe in the main bullish season after every four years and this is also very visible from the reality in the market. Now there are indeed many people who are happy with the improving conditions which can be considered bullish at this time because I personally am also quite happy to see this happen at the end of the year so the hope of seeing more recovery in the market will soon become a reality.
A clear Bull run cannot be identified by any investor but if price attain the higher value and exists longer then it is consider as Bull season. As these days bitcoin increased and still it is 41k$ therefore people are more positive about investment in Bitcoin. One cannot predict that how longer the value of bitcoin will remains in upward position therefore bullish period is unknown that on which value it stops to increase more.
Halving is coming so this price Fluctuations is only for correction and everyone tends to accumulate more bitcoin so as the price increase more then they will take benefit from it. If once bitcoin again start to increase then it will cross the number of 45k$ in current year. We have experienced that after every four years there happens surge so four years will be completed in 2024 in which we will see new opportunities to get the best out of our investment.
Although we can say that a full bull run is going to happen right after the block halving, it could be weeks or months right after that activity. But so far though, others consider this great leap that we have since the beginning of the year at least last year when we have a lowest low of $15k.
So for now, all speculations pointed out to a $45k at the end of the year it could be attainable. But it depends on how the speculators are going to do it. They might push it as there are some positive news about the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF and they might used this one to fuel FOMO before the end of the year.