I don't see any reason to compromise on the idea and to agree that investing 1-4 years is better than some other kind of shorter-term thinking or trading, and sure people can do whatever they want, but if they are talking about 1-4 years as if it were long term, then they are full of shit. and they have the wrong mindset.

Of course, we know people who might even be on the younger side, so they have many years, even 10-40 years before they are planning to retire; however, at the same time, they are wanting to save up in shorter periods of time because they have certain kind of consumption goals or other "investments" that they want to make that are not bitcoin related... It is still going to be risky for those people to be thinking about bitcoin in terms of 1-4 year time frames - and maybe we need some kind of an example..  remember the guy earlier who had been saving for his wedding, so he ended up cashing out of his bitcoin in order to pay for his wedding.. and that surely could have ended up well from him if he had been able to profit by nearly doubling his principle, so if his wedding was going to cost $20k, and and he put $10k into bitcoin when BTC prices were around $22k, and then when BTC prices got into the $40ks, he cashed out all of his bitcoin and he had nearly $20k, yet in that case, he was still gambling and his gamble ended up working out...

Even though likely bitcoin works way better as a longer term investment in which the profits can fold over and over and over into the investment and end up having a compounding effect that is not guaranteed, but each of us should still be figuring out how to play our bitcoin investment, including that maybe we have some bitcoin funds that we are going to want to draw out, even if we might be continuing to accumulate BTC, so the whole matter of building up the BTC holdings can sometimes seem a bit ambiguous if we are not consistently building the size of our bitcoin holdings during the accumulation phase.


Surely level of profits can be another way of attempting to measure if value should be taken out, and people need to decide those kinds of matters, and what kinds of prices are we going to get in the last 3-4 years?  It could be possible that someone started investing in bitcoin in 2019 or 2020 and they had built up a bitcoin portfolio that has an average cost per BTC of $8k to $10k or so, but that abiliity to have lower than $10k costs per BTC would have meant that they were able to lump sum part or all of their investment into BTC prior to late 2020, because we have not had BTC prices that low after late 2020.  Even by early November 2020, BTC prices had already crossed above $15k, and they had not returned below $15k, so anyone who might have been able to get his BTC investment portfolio with costs at or below $10k would have to have had been investing prior to late 2020 and also maybe would have had to have been fairly aggressively front loading his investment into bitcoin.

So if such person with a $10k average cost per BTC is waiting for $100k to $500k, then that would be 10x to 50x, and so maybe they could sell some or all of their BTC at those various price points, and still what are they going to do with it?  consume? or do they have some supposedly better place that they are planning to put it or are they selling mostly because they are thinking that a 10x to 50x price appreciation means that their BTC holdings are going to be going down thereafter.... so they need to take profits while they can?  That still would not necessarily justify cashing out of BTC in large proportions.

Let's say that a person with a $10k per BTC average had invested around $100k into bitcoin, so they had gotten 10 BTC out of the deal, so $100k to $500k would end up putting the value of their total BTC holdings at between $1 million and $5 million, depending on the BTC price point.  Surely, it could become justified to cash out some or all of the BTC at those various price points, even though I don't really consider cashing out all BTC or even more than half of the BTC at any given point to be necessary or even good long term planning - even if someone is merely considering that he is cashing out 50% or more in order to buy back at lower prices.

Again people can do whatever they like in terms of how they choose to manage their BTC holdings and if they might consider that 10 BTC is enough to there after be starting to cash out some or all of it. 

Of course, the more BTC that they have accumulated, the more justifiable it becomes to cash out all or some of their BTC, and even if we take a person who might have invested aggressively into BTC starting in early 2020, so if they had been fairly aggressively buying BTC throughout 2020, and so by the end of 2020, maybe their $100k had ended up getting them around 10 BTC because they made a few mistakes, but they were front loading their investment somewhat with around $2k per week for the whole year of 2020.

So if from 2021 to present, they figured that they would still accumulate BTC, and maybe they would end up investing about half as much into bitcoin, so they spend 2021, 2022, and 2023 accumulating another $50k worth of bitcoin at about $320 per week, which ends up getting them nearly another 2 BTC, so then at the end of 4 years they end up having $150k invested and they have right around 12 BTC.  So are they then in a better position than the person that accumulated 10BTC to feel that they have enough BTC to start cashing out when their holdings get into the 10x to 50x profits arena?



You don't need to give any shits about further generations in order to have a longer investment time horizon, and sure it is understandable that if someone wants to quit working at some point in their life, that person likely needs to have some kind of investment, and maybe even to have some preparedness that whatever pension or social system might not be paying out at a rate that is going to keep up with the cost of living. So some people are forced to keep on working if they believe that the cut that they are going to receive in their income is not going to be able to support them.. even if you are into your 30s, you likely realize that you have a good 20 more years to work because it is difficult as fuck to be able to stop working early and also to feel that whatever savings/investments are going to be able to support you if you start to draw upon them in your early 50s rather than in your 60s, but still it could be possible to have goals to be able to get to such a surplus level of savings/investments that you are going to have options to at least cut down on the amount that you have to work in your 50s rather than having to work full time and having fewer options at that age.

So even if people might want to have luxury items and consumption and trips in their 20s, 30s and 40s, they still might be able to prepare for their 50s, even though yeah, like you are suggesting many times normies perceive 1-4 years as being a long term investment, when it is not... so those people can have fun staying poor if they are so busy cashing out their BTC investment and not letting it ride and not continuing to add to it in order to get themselves to a better place, at a later point in their lives even though the consumptions and luxuries in your 20s, 30s and 40s are compelling, and I am not even suggesting that anyone should be completely giving up luxuries and consumption in their 20s, 30s and 40s, but there are ways to engage in such consumption and luxuries in modest ways that still keep the ongoing bitcoin investment in mind, rather than cashing out in 1-4 years or whatever other relatively short time frame is compelling such early cashing out.


That may or may not work as well as people perceive it to work, and I have no problem if people think that they are able to accomplish greater returns by trading rather than holding and buying.. and maybe the extent to which they might be successful in the scalping and trading might be if they are playing bigger curves and sure they might get blown out of their BTC holdings if they sell too much too soon and they are expecting a drop that does not end up happening, and if they keep selling more and more on the way up and then pretty soon they run out of BTC to sell... then what?

If you are tempted into those practices to sell BTC in order to accumulate more, then you are likely going to need a lot of luck (and sure there might be some who are actually skilled in doing it. but I have my doubts about that too).. trading is not a good game for normies, even if some might want to spend their time in such ways, and maybe they can outperform a strict DCA approach, yet I have my doubts.