Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
On the lifestyle/retirement subject.
I was not in as early as many of you. I do not have retirement or fuck you levels of BTC stashed away. Fortunately, I am what I consider to be "very young" with a very well paying career. My sole objective has always been a responsibile early retirement. Retirement in the sense of not needing to work if I dont want to, no daily agenda of things I need to do other than necessities, and a comfortable lifestyle. I'll add that I will also be an unofficial expat once retired.
I am fortunate enough to have existing retirement assets such as pensions, annuity, 401k, (ect). All of those are not reasonably accessible to me until later in my life when social security is also available. Simply put, 60-death I should have more than enough even if I make a few poor decisions or have an emergency or two. My focus has been on filling the gap between retirement and "retirement age" with personal assets. By current conservative estimates I am on target to reach my goal in 8-10 years which puts me at an age many would consider an unsually young retirement age.
My personal assets are composed of approximately 80% Bitcoin. I have treated it as an asset that I want as much as possible of because I believe it's value will be much higher in the future than now. I project it's increase in value as the average stock market increase of 7-9% per year to keep myself conservative. Meanwhile, it's proved to smoke those estimates to date.
I have not worked out or planned what I will do with my bitcoin once I have achieved retirement level funds. I do plan to run through everything else before touching it though. Honestly, I have hoped once I am at that point I won't need to sell it for cash to use. I am hoping I can actually make direct purchases with it instead. With planning to do a bit of traveling it adds the utility of a being a worldwide currency as well.
I thought I would share this as a truthful post on how bitcoin fits into my life. I know I and others tend to post extreme "hold till I'm dead" type of comments but, that's just the fun side of WO for me. Thought this might be a helpful point of view for others who did not start buying BTC at $10 a coin.
I was not in as early as many of you. I do not have retirement or fuck you levels of BTC stashed away. Fortunately, I am what I consider to be "very young" with a very well paying career. My sole objective has always been a responsibile early retirement. Retirement in the sense of not needing to work if I dont want to, no daily agenda of things I need to do other than necessities, and a comfortable lifestyle. I'll add that I will also be an unofficial expat once retired.
I am fortunate enough to have existing retirement assets such as pensions, annuity, 401k, (ect). All of those are not reasonably accessible to me until later in my life when social security is also available. Simply put, 60-death I should have more than enough even if I make a few poor decisions or have an emergency or two. My focus has been on filling the gap between retirement and "retirement age" with personal assets. By current conservative estimates I am on target to reach my goal in 8-10 years which puts me at an age many would consider an unsually young retirement age.
My personal assets are composed of approximately 80% Bitcoin. I have treated it as an asset that I want as much as possible of because I believe it's value will be much higher in the future than now. I project it's increase in value as the average stock market increase of 7-9% per year to keep myself conservative. Meanwhile, it's proved to smoke those estimates to date.
I have not worked out or planned what I will do with my bitcoin once I have achieved retirement level funds. I do plan to run through everything else before touching it though. Honestly, I have hoped once I am at that point I won't need to sell it for cash to use. I am hoping I can actually make direct purchases with it instead. With planning to do a bit of traveling it adds the utility of a being a worldwide currency as well.
I thought I would share this as a truthful post on how bitcoin fits into my life. I know I and others tend to post extreme "hold till I'm dead" type of comments but, that's just the fun side of WO for me. Thought this might be a helpful point of view for others who did not start buying BTC at $10 a coin.
Thanks for sharing this I’m fairly aligned to most of what you have here. BTC enables early retirement imho, If you live under US tax regime, you pay cg tax on gains but only depends on your income if you earn less than ~45k cap gains tax is 0%. Selling btc doesn’t count as income, but when your retirement accounts kick in that’s going to skew your income bracket and the cg tax you pay on asset sales.
Most of us don’t have massive stashes but I see Btc as a way to bridge the time between early retirement start and official retirement start. I probably will have more spending power in early retirement than official retirement.one could also posit that your btc stash can set the date of what early retirement is, and using a withdrawal plan you could somewhat forecast this out.
The bit I’m trying to work out now is when I come to this liquidation stage is it better to dca sell in year of halving for the next 4yrs of needed inc or to use something like the 200wma for monthly draw downs over a 4 yr period.
Taxes
Good point on the tax. If early retirement is funded on BTC only... then income would be under the $47,025 cap. That is something I had not factored before. However, tax laws are finicky and always changing. It is hard to say what tax laws may be in 2 years, 5 years, 10 years. Another factor to take into account is the taxable rates that are constantly changing:
Source: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54911
The above graph can also explain why when you talk to people who worked from the 1970s through 2000 they tout 401k or other pretax or tax deferred savings methods. They were working during a time where taxable rates were at an all time high. The less tax they could get away with paying or deferring the better! Looking at the graph we are currently working in a near all time low tax rate era while they are projecting tax rates to increase. Meaning those same retirement methods could actually result in you paying a higher taxable rate after deferring that tax. But, in all honesty who the fuck knows what tax laws will be or what rates will be in the future. Could it go down, up, sideways? Perhaps... perhaps... perhaps?
An example in tax law changes is when the Trump tax laws went into affect. Some of the law changes did away with unreimbursed working expenses. People who used to claim car mileage or other similar items on their returns were now unable to do so. However, at the same time the standard deduction was also increased in an attempt to "make taxes more simple". As I said, hard to say what tax laws will be or how they may change year to year.
Withdrawing
Many posts I see and folks I have talked to about this prefer the 200wma as a more stable way to project value of their holdings. I am not quite sold on that method just yet but, I am still maybe 8-10 years away from wanting to do this. The other method that I am looking at is withdrawing approximately 500 days after a halving. Below is a chart I have posted that I will continue to watch in the coming years.
The chart shows an obvious ideal sell period of approximately 500 days after a halving. However, then we come to the obstacle in the road of "past performance does not guarantee future results". Since I am still in the accumulating phase, I have some years left to see if this cycle continues. I've seen others hypothesize that future halvings may not have the same impact as past halvings. There are obviously many factors that go into valuing BTC vs the the US Dollar and it is impossible to project how the future may play out.
If BTC did not continue to follow the 4 year cycle I currently see and become more stable then that may even be a better scenario in being able to withdraw on a yearly basis only the amount needed to continue to the next year.
I’m working on a move excel sheet examples to show what I mean using forecast 200 wma(borrowed from jjg fu post). I get it tho to me using this is ultra conservative but would prefer to be in a position of doing better than worse and I think using this there is higher probability of being better off.
Yes tax law changes but my opinion is my stash is small so honestly saving 15% is a lot of me in comparison to my stack. If I was 10x my stack I wouldn’t care so much tbh. It’s all about being realistic too I have some hopium projections too but I just can’t even fathom these being realistic.
Should have something up Monday or Tuesday night even create my first thread on this topic.
Want feedback on it help make it better
maybe it helps someone who knows