There are good arguments for every point people make about block size; let's break some of them down.
Argument 1: "Increasing block size would lead to centralizing Bitcoin in terms of nodes."
In theory, this holds. The larger the blockchain, the more expensive it is to store the data.
Counter-Argument: This is B.S. Storage drives are pretty cheap. If someone can afford $50 a year for a node, they could afford $60. Storage is only getting cheaper as we move forward.
Argument 2: "Increasing block size would lead to centralizing Bitcoin in terms of mining."
In theory, this holds true as well. The average miner would safely download or propagate a 4MB block but will have a difficult time handling a 40MB block. This means only large miners would survive, leading to centralization.
Counter-Argument: This is B.S. 99% of blocks are found by mining pools that spend thousands of dollars a month on operating nodes across the globe, running on a gigabit fast internet connection. They could handle a 40MB block just as easily as they handle the 4MB block.
Argument 3: "Increasing block size would reduce miners' rewards, leading to less security."
Again, holds true in theory. Miners want people lining up, outbidding each other so they can make the most profit. The more profit to be extracted, the more hash power we can have, and thus, the more secure the blockchain is.
Counter-Argument: This is B.S. Just because you build a small road for a highly populated city doesn't mean you increase toll revenue; you are just forcing poor people to stay off the road. The argument suggests that if blocks were 8MB, there would be 2x more transactions paying 50% the fee, which means cheaper transactions for everyone but the same profit for miners.
Argument 4: "1st rule of programming: If it works, don't touch it."
As a programmer, I confirm this. I look at some messy code I wrote years ago, and I find it so hard to risk the change. The code works, and I know for certain that if I touch it, no matter how careful I am, I could end up breaking things. Core devs did everything they could to increase the block without a hard fork; there may be left some 5-10% optimization, but past that, you are going to need a hard fork. A hard fork is like jumping off an airplane without a parachute, counting on your buddy who is jumping off another plane to come and catch you—you could end up recording the best video of your life, or you could fall on your head and make a 50m deep hole.
Counter-Argument: We had many forks before; this won't be the first one. Let's just do it. Let's save the poor folks who want to pay 1 sat/Vbyte to pay for their Starbucks that tastes like horse shit.
Every argument and counter-argument is valid depending on how you view them. Many people avoid getting into these discussions because many in the crypto community are narcissists and want BTC to be what they want it to be. If you speak for larger blocks, they accuse you of being CW's puppet; if you advocate for smaller blocks, you are now Core's pawn.
So now you need to be realistic with yourself and ask: Why would this change?
Miners are content with people competing to get into the block.
Exchanges are satisfied because there's more incentive to keep your BTC in their custody for cheap internal exchange and transfers, or to exchange your BTC for other coins when making smaller payments.
Most users don't seem bothered; we see people paying 8000 sat/Vbyte when potential fees are 300 sats/Vbyte.
People pay millions to mint some ugly JPEGs, and those who call themselves 'normal users' pay even higher fees than them to transact.
If you think BTC isn't working, then you need some fact-checking. It is working, it's in high demand, and the world doesn't give a damn about the 100 folks who want to set their fees at 1 sat/Vbyte to get into the next block. Sad fact? Indeed. Will it change anything? Hell no.
So, given the above and considering the risks involved in the transition, and the fact that people didn't give up on BTC despite high fees, it would be foolish for anyone to think that a block increase is going to happen anytime soon.