Ok, I see your point now, and I think it is based on this assumption you made in the first post


You base your assumption on what seems to be rational actions, whereby, with profits this tight, you would expect higher difficulty would drive some miners away, but minimg is far from rational.

Look at the previous epcoch, we had 7% increase, does it seem like there are fewer miners today? Nop, in fact it seems there are 6% more hashrate, so we finding 6% more blocks than what we should, there is no guarantee the next diff would be any different.

As i said in my previous post, it is crazy American money, you can not predict anything, large corps could be mining at a loss and still manage to get investors to fund them, i see no end to this madness, the halving will stop some of it, but not all.