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You perfectly describe the situation. One needs a strategy but defining it is difficult. Lately I'm talking on another forum (a French one) with people who are planning for FIRE or have done it already, with or without crypto, and clearly their strategies and "fuck you" amount are very varied.
In another thread, I recently tried to outline 6 different hypothetical people - 3 with 10 years investing into bitcoin and 3 investing 5 years into bitcoin, and surely we can see from the different hypothetical folks it become more and more clear that the longer that they have been into bitcoin and/or the more BTC that they have accumulated, the more clear that their going forward strategy (especially in regards to BTC) can be relaxed when they reach a bit of a status, but if they are still not quite to that status, there can be some flexibility, frustration and even a bit of a dilemma to know what to do, even if it might also seem clear that accumulating a certain amount of BTC had ended up paying off for them.
Hypo 1 (10-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)This person might have invested into bitcoin for 1-2 years using DCA method, and maybe even lump sum investing, so maybe has a $750 average cost per BTC, and maybe built up 300 BTC, and so maybe he just plays the waves and feels like he has enough BTC, and accomplished most of his DCA in the first couple years of investing, and maybe will still buy some more BTC from time to time when he perceives the BTC price to be low.. such as near or below the 200-week moving average, other than that he might just be either maintaining his stash and/or cashing out some from time to time.
Hypo 2. (10-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio) Maybe this person was investing
$250 per week into bitcoin, and invested around 130k into bitcoin and accumulated near 115 BTC, and maybe in recent times (since around late 2020 and early 2021), this person has been starting to feel like he has enough BTC and that he can perhaps start to cut back on his DCA buying of BTC
Hypo 3 (10-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of BTC portfolio), and has been investing $20 to $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe
averaged around $60 per week of BTC, invested nearly $32k into BTC and accumulated nearly 28 BTC. This person still is not quite sure if he has enough BTC, even though he has been consistently investing into bitcoin for the past 10 years.
And yeah, maybe we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks with ONLY 5 years of investing into BTC.
Hypo 4 (5-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)This person might have invested into bitcoin for 1-2 years using DCA method, and maybe even lump sum investing, so maybe has a $7,000 average cost per BTC, and maybe built up 150 BTC [yes, I know, that is $1 million invested into BTC], and so maybe he just plays the waves and feels like he is getting close to having enough BTC, and accomplished most of his DCA in the first couple years of investing, and maybe will still buy some more BTC from time to time when he perceives the BTC price to be low.. such as near or below the 200-week moving average, other than that he might just be either maintaining his stash and/or cashing out some from time to time.
Hypo 5. (5-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio) Maybe this person was investing
$1,000 per week into bitcoin, and invested around 260k into bitcoin and accumulated near 20 BTC, and maybe this person is not quite feeling as if he has enough BTC.... but is thinking that he might be getting close to feeling that way in the next year or so.
Hypo 6 (5-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of BTC portfolio), and has been investing
$100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe invested around $26k into BTC and accumulated nearly 2 BTC. This person still is considering that he is quite far from having enough BTC, even though he feels pretty comfortable about his investment to date, but he is thinking that he might need to DCA into bitcoin for another 5-10 more years before he starts to feel comfortable, and maybe he is going to need to increase the quantity of his weekly DCA by either increasing income and/or cutting expenses... and he is thinking that he might be able to bring his DCA amount up to $200 or $400 per week and maybe get another 2 or 3 BTC in the next 10 to 15 years or so.
And, part of my point is that the time in which each of these person is going to feel that he has enough BTC is going to differ, and surely there are advantages in regards to having had started accumulated BTC earlier, and it may well be difficult for later comers to catch up.. and even the person with the worst situation (hypo 6) has a pretty decent advantage over a person who is brand new to bitcoin, unless the person comes in and is already able front load the investment and being able to buy a couple of BTC to get caught up to hypo 6.
Relatedly: I think that part of what I am attempting to do in
my sustainable withdrawal thread is to attempt to describe some ways in which guys might start to program in some of their own withdrawal methods, even if they might feel that they are not completely at their entry-level fuck you status, but instead are getting close to their entry-level fuck you status.
In my case a major consideration is family and country. Currently I'm single but I'd like a partner and kids, that costs money. And country, if I don't need to work, I don't need to stay in this expensive, high tax country either. Living in a cheaper place changes the calculation.
Well no matter what, the amount of BTC and/or other resources that you need to reach to get at entry-level fuck you status may well vary, and sure maybe you can bring some costs down by moving to another country, but there are costs and potential complications involved with that too... and having a certain level of resources is also helpful in attracting a life-companion, but sometimes the life companion will also be considering the extent to which you have social connections too, which may or may not be diminished if you move out of your country... because sometimes there can be an exotic factor that gives you social status in moving to another country, but still it might not even play out with easy calculations.. to be young and rich, but then as any of us get older, those are factors too that can some times eliminate some possible life partners.
As for BTC price fluctuating, yeah it means ideally you have some cash to "buy the dips", but also to live let's say the next couple of years, so that you don't need to sell corn during dips.
That is what I try to do in
opening post 2 of my sustainable withdrawal system - which is to adjust the amount of the authorized withdrawal based on how far the BTC price is from the 200-week moving average.
Bitmover also created a thread to show an interactive website that we collaborated on to make it easier to plug in your own numbers and see how they look for the attempt to apply my view of a kind of sustainable withdrawal formula.
I'm definitely hodling and DCAing until 100K at least, at that point I think I want to sell a bit, maybe 5% of my stash so that I have cash to buy a dip after that. But that's my current thinking.
That kind of thinking fits more into the creation of formulas for the selling BTC on the way up and
fillippone made it easy to plug your own particular numbers into a spreadsheet to try to work out what kinds of selling points you might want to employ, (such as where to start and what kinds of sell increments and your expectations of being able to buy back at lower prices (as a kind of probability set for how likely it might be that you might be able to buy back at certain dip amounts - in the example buying back at 10%, 20% and 30% with a probable likelihood of 70%, 45% and 15% respectively.. which yeah maybe those default probabilities might be too high, perhaps?)).