Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Quote from: Zaharai on December 28, 2023, 03:38:02 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 28, 2023, 02:07:44 PM

So, even though there may be some advantages towards keeping more conservative expectations regarding what the price might do, just in case the parity or whatever (exceeding of parity) might not end up happening, there still can be a number of surprises that end up contributing to greater than expected performance at various points along the way.. And, by the way, of course there is a difference for someone who had just started investing in their 401k in a 4-8 year timeline versus someone who might have had been investing in their 401k for 15-20 years or longer. Wen Parity? Yes, it's an interesting question.

I don't think it's true that it's only related to investing in Bitcoin for long term but in many cases, intelligence and intuition become very important. In this case, it should be understood when it is time to invest and when the investment will not be very fast or profit will not be able to play a very important role in the case of the next investment. Although our thinking most of the time wants to make extra profit but it should not be realized because sometimes profit and loss can be encountered. I agree with you that long term plans play a more important role.

You seem to fail to get the gist of the portion of my text that you are citing - which largely if we were talking about how investing in a 401k might compare with investing in bitcoin, then there might be various questions regarding what kinds of assets are offered within the 401k, and then there might be questions about employer matching contributions and then there might be questions about whether anyone who is investing in a 401k might feel that s/he has money left to buy bitcoin directly (which would be outside of the 401k), and if the 401k starts to offer a bitcoin spot ETF, then there could be temptations for the person to invest through the 401k and not to buy bitcoin directly. Of course investing in both can happen, but these days people are generally allowed to invest up to $20k per year into retirement accounts,

...and I had already used the example of a person who earns $100k per year, and anyone earning up to that amount or less may well not want to invest more than 20% into anything outside of the 401k.. so they might be deterred in terms of buying BTC directly - unless they are really informed about BTC, then maybe they would ONLY invest up to the amount of their employers matching and then invest directly into bitcoin in order to have other options that do not have those 401k kinds of restrictions.

Quote from: aesma on December 28, 2023, 04:23:39 PM

Quote from: Biodom on December 27, 2023, 06:54:24 PM

Quote from: SamReomo on December 27, 2023, 06:17:35 PM

Quote from: Negotiation on December 27, 2023, 01:22:28 PM

MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 14,620 BTC for ~$615.7 million at an average price of $42,110 per #bitcoin. As of 12/26/23,
@MicroStrategy
now hodls 189,150 $BTC acquired for ~$5.9 billion at an average price of $31,168 per bitcoin.

I fear what would happen to the market when they start selling those BTC, the market may face a huge dump. If I'm not wrong then the MicroStrategy won't be selling their Bitcoin at least for the time when Bitcoin doesn't reaches $1M a Bitcoin.

Their business model is to act as a levered bitcoin play, supported by equity sells and a small cash flow from their other business.
Basically, it is a 2X bitcoin ETF, but with no slippage (which happen in "regular" futures based 2X ETFs, which are typically to run away from).
They will probably de-lever a bit later on.
Ideally, they should de-lever during peaks and lever up during troughs, but imho, Michael Saylor got 'caught up' a little in Dec 2022.
Thankfully, he did not have covenants that might have caused him to sell at a very inopportune moment.
I calculate that at some point in Dec 2022, MSTR probably had almost zero equity: about 2X leverage at 29-30K with the price at $15-16K means that equity was then zero or perilously close to it.

I don't get why he bought so much at basically the current peak though.

Saylor is not price sensative. He buys at whatever price with however much money he has available.. which is also known as DCA.

Aparently Saylor/MSTR believes that he/his company doesn't have enough BTC.