What if Bitcoin ETF is not Approved
You seem to have forgotten that bitcoin never needed ETF to rise and it is not about to start now. The price has gone up
4 billion percent ever since the inception (from $0.001 to current $42k) and all that without ETF or any centralized crap like that.
Even if SEC were to reject ETF, it wouldn't have been the first time and nobody would care. The only thing that would have done was to scare some newbies to panic sell.
Same thought here but if it happens that Bitcoin Spot ETF is approved, it will supplement the boost given by the incoming Bitcoin halving which probably result in boosted Bitcoin price in the coming months, but regardless, I also think that there will be no changes on the price of BTC if ETF is not approved (if there is it would be minor and probably will be outweighed by the coming Bitcoin halving) because just as many of us believe, Bitcoin had been thriving without ETF so it does not bring any difference if the batch of ETF application is not approved.
If the Spot ETF is denied, I'm certain that we'd seen a shaep drop in the value of Bitcoin. This wouldn't be the first time an ETF is denied for Bitcoin but this might have more negative impact because Bitcoin enthusiasm is high this time around and everyone is expecting it to be approved only to get hit by that shocking turn out of event? Price dropping is almost certain but it wouldn't be for long because the macro trend is hyper bullish with or without the spot ETF. I mean, Bitcoin's last ATH was achieved without ETF.
Bitcoin value will only go down sharply if some group manipulates the market to artificially react to the news while spreading FUD using the rejection of ETF to create panic sell.