Thoughts about ETF effect on btc price in initial period:

On one hand, ETF sponsors would like to generate momentum, but, on the other hand, they would "like" institutions to be able to come not on a spike, thefore, my read is that after approval we will observe either a flat city or a smallish down (less than 5-10%) during the first few months, maybe to April, maybe to May. Later April sounds logical, as it is when the halving occurs. After that (this period could extend to summer, maybe): a very steady high powered bull run with no more than 10-15% local corrections...maybe for 12-18mo or maybe even multiple years.

I guess, everyone just counts on approval, but sometimes I think that PTB can still throw something nasty into the mix, but hopefully, they wouldn't and no black swans either: late 2019 to early 2020 was an especially nasty one. One day, btc was smartly running up in Jan -Feb 2020, then, suddenly, everything went "kabluey" due to covid panic.