It took less than 3 months in 2017 i to reach 20K starting below 4K. And then everyone knew CME and CBOE won't buy actual bitcoins. Now it is different. It is hard to predict what will happen in the next few months. It depends how quickly the main ETF buyers will adapt to the new opportunity to buy bitcoin ETF's. May be there will be a rush, may be not. And may be some will be dissapointed by the slow start and dump their coins. But in the long run the supply shock will make the difference of course.
I wouldn't agree if everyone knew that fact, because if they did, such a massive FOMO wouldn't have been created. I think that the majority still lived in the delusion that the price would eventually reach much more than $20k, although realistically, even that price was a big surprise for those who understood a little better what was actually happening.
From everything I read on the forum, many members still do not understand the difference between futures BTC ETFs that already exist and the possible approval of spot ETFs in the US.
However, I think retail customers are definitely not in the same financial position as they were in 2017 given the inflation rates that have occurred since then. What I want to say is that the amount of money at their disposal is far less than before, and the price of Bitcoin itself plays a big role in all of this.
However, it is a big unknown how the market will accept spot BTC ETFs, because regardless of the fact that the market seems to really want it at the moment, theory and practice can often be completely different.