Post
Topic
Board Project Development
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: [ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy
by
JayJuanGee
on 03/01/2024, 16:47:14 UTC
⭐ Merited by bitmover (1)

**
I did just input this info into the website and I noticed that future dates are allowed to be put into the date field, and that must be an error since we currently do not have any formulas for the future

Fixed!!!

You cannot enter future dates anymore.

I just tried it, and you are correct that it is not possible to click on the calendar for the input of future dates, but I can still input future dates manually.

Presumptively if we are withdrawing in a conservative way such as below 6%, then the dollar value of our BTC would have good chances of going up, even though our BTC stack size would be going down, and presumptively if we are withdrawing between 6% to 10% then the fiat value of our stash may well stay at similar levels, and finally the more aggressive that we are beyond 10% then the larger the chance that we are depleting our stash value in terms of its ability to sustain its dollar value at the rate we are withdrawing it... and we label 17% and higher be extremely aggressive and the tool allows going up to 30% per year.. but yeah visualizing how that might affect our level of sustainability might take some higher level math skills (referring to my own challenges to come up with what the right formulas might be and then how to display that .. .which also kinds of reminds me that some of the numbers that I have chosen are somewhat arbitrary in regards to where I chose to divide, which may or may not be eligible for better formulas rather than my having had chosen some of the dividing points)..
I think this chart "Portfolio decumulation" or depletion or something like that is important. Specially when moving the range pointer, so you can see how long your stash will survive.

The user can see the inclination changes and how long it will last.

TO DO!

I realize that I responded in long ways and even meandered away from the main points about ability to show some kind of of a meaningful trajectory, so there may be ways to give some ballpark ideas of that, and of course, the basic presumption would be that we are ONLY withdrawing and not continuing to add to our stash, so the basic trajectory of the BTC stash is would by trajectored out as going down, but it could be misleading to presume that your BTC stash is actually losing value in terms of dollars (or even purchasing power), so it would need to include some kind of idea of dollar value, which brings another GIANT unknown in regards to whether how well the dollar might even retain a meaningful debasement rate - but even if we attempt to assume away that the dollar is debasing at nominal rates that still allows for us to be able to sustain our purchasing power value in real terms, then we still would be trying to attempt to measure a variety of unmeasurables (or unknowns) and still end up engaging in quite a bit of ballparking of the estimates (which still is not necessarily a bad thing to do - because we want to be able to provide a calculator in which individuals are able to have tools to help themselves to best estimate future possibilities, even if there is a recognition that the tool is still ballparking.. and the further it projects out into the future the more it is ballparking).

So just to reiterrate, in terms of BTC terms, we could draw from our BTC 4% or even 10% every single year into perpetuity, and we are never going to deplete our BTC to zero, but the number will get increasingly smaller and smaller, and so yeah, the larger the percentage we are drawing out, then the more it is going to deplete, so the main question seems to be if the dollar is debasing faster than our withdrawal rate (or in other words if the purchasing power of our remaining BTC is going up  faster than the rate that we are withdrawing it), and there seems to be no way to really project very accurately in these regards, even though we can project out that our BTC stash is getting smaller (and maybe that is all that fillippone is saying that he would like to be able to see.. and I have no real problem showing that).. but is that visualization of our BTC shrinking to such tiny amounts really telling us very much when it still depends upon the dollar value, so the remaining BTC still might be going up in purchasing power, even though the amount would inevitably be going down with the passage of time..

Word withdrawal sounds to me like Bitcoin is held on some centralized website or exchange, because I would never use this term if I ever sold BTC from my non-custodial wallet.
Maybe there is a better word?  but it seems that I had likely gotten that word (whether subliminally or otherwise) from the idea of a retirement account, and the reference to a withdrawal rate of 3% or 4%, which means that there is withdrawal from the investment and use of the funds for various kinds of consumption and/or income.
decumulation perhaps?

I personally would like to just stick with the traditional word of "withdraw" because it is used in a lot of circles and it is generally widely known and probably quite descriptive of what we are doing (or calculating the doing of such).

In my battling around of the idea, I do believe that dkbit98's discussion of the reverse DCA did raised a more important point about the potential utility of allowing the tool to have greater than 30% withdrawal rates, which I may well want to suggest that any amount higher than 30% would fall into the categorization of reverse DCA (a kind of quick disinvestment perspective).. yet since the actual tool is presenting withdrawal on a monthly basis, even a 40% annual withdrawal rate would result in 10% per quarter and 3% per month, so it could still be possible to have a pretty long withdrawal period (or reverse DCA), even if the rate was set at 40%, the withdrawal period still might end up lasting close to 3 years and still making sense in regards to the quantity of BTC being withdrawn monthly at the end of the 3-year period as compared to what it had been at the beginning of the 3-year period.. of course, part of the meaningfulness of the withdrawal amount may well have to do with whether BTC is in an upward trend during that time or a downward trend.

I would suggest implementing some more complete “views” of the future scenario: how will my stash be depleted if Bitcoin grows in the future according to a few data points?
Thank you.

I will think about implementations of this. This might be a dull chart, like this
but I think this is necessary.

(this only consider withdrawal 4% anual)

Historically, we could look back and maybe put in the date of December 17, 2017 and we can see that the tool would have had authorized withdrawing 59 months in advance based on a 1,491% difference between the then spot price and the 200-WMA, but even if the person used such guidance to have monthly living expenses for 59 months, the bear market of 2018, 2019 and 2020 did not last even close to 59 months, so there could have been a determination at some point to use some of those sold months to buy back in, even in early 2019 (between April 1 and the end of June), there could have had been a decision to use some of those extra sold months (the 59 months in advance) to buy back some BTC.. and then reenable the ability to use the tool again.. since by the way, the idea of cashing out in advance means that you cannot sell any more (or withdraw anymore) BTC for all of those months in advance that you had withdrawn absent either using some of the months to buy back BTC, or if the BTC price goes up above the number of months in advance that you had sold in order that you would be authorized additional months to sell (or withdraw more). 
This chart will be interesting, another TODO!

It will be interesting to see what you come up with, yet I am still thinking that some of the projections could end up overlapping into other areas of future projection, and if we follow through with some kind of a raking page and then maybe somehow formulating a fuck you status projection page (we might need to call it something more user-friendly?), then maybe some of those formulas (or data projection or presumptions of the future) could get incorporated into such a visual.

Please share with me! I am looking for suggestions to improve this, and even create more tools to train my skills
I'm sure that's not the goal, but I was thinking about the possibility of using the data and the graph to also indicate potential moments of purchase.
So in the future, if you think it makes sense, you could include some parameters (to be defined by each user), which, when reached, would send an alert indicating the moment.
ex: If the 200WMA drops to x%, send me an alert indicating purchase.

Keep with the work!
That sounds interesting to send alerts and of course we are mostly thinking in terms of alerting for possible sells (since this is a selling tool), but once such a tool is created, it could be used in either direction (meaning for selling and/or for buying).. so I am not sure how difficult it would be to add some kind of a tool like that, but it does sound interesting as a concept...

On the other hand, wouldn't the user have to provide some kind of data such as e-mail or sms.. and then would we be able to blindly interface with that, without collecting any user data?  I think that we are probably a bit nervous about any kind of collection or retention of user data.. at least at this point.. but of course, with discussions of monetization some times there can develop trade-offs to weigh differently with the passage of time.
User would probably have to create an account with an email or something like that.

The email could even come with a letter with some investment advice from JJG?  Smiley

I don't really like the idea of a letter, but maybe a 30-minute or a 60-minute phone call, even though I don't really like the idea of advice, but instead maybe brainstorming because I would likely be suggesting that people can do whatever they like and they are responsible for their own investment choices, but some guys (and maybe gal) might want to discuss in a less public way: "Hey, this is what I was thinking about doing" and maybe I could say whether I understand it or not and make some suggestions that they could consider.. but I hate to really call it advice even though sometimes some people might be willing to just go with what I say rather than really brainstorming their own particulars.. but then that could be part of the idea.. I suppose that if someone were to want to have a discussion, then they might have had already thought through some of their plans in regards to their own portfolio size and their various circumstances and perspectives as in the 9 factors to consider, so maybe they would want to discuss in some kind of a personalized way one or more of the factors. .. but still sounds scary to me in terms of monetization or subscription model and I am not really wanting to create any further of a job for myself.  hahahahahaha

We could outsource it.

JayJuanGee , I saw your PM about changing some more features, I will do that with the new buttons on the chart in a next ( bigger) update!

Sure.  That sounds good, and there are ONLY so many hours in a day.

The site is already very workable in terms of making it way easier to get answers to the sustainable withdrawal questions as compared to trying to figure out which boxes might apply in a spreadsheet.