While I appreciate those folks that have researched and considered what the next halving might look like based on 2020, I would urge caution in doing so. The COVID pandemic disrupted most of the planet in terms of supply chains, shipping, and overall economic activity. I don't think that Bitcoin would be immune to that as well. Lots of external forces directly influence BTC price which can drive a lot of other actions in the overall sphere of Bitcoin.
Just my thought.
And one more factor
rewards of 3.125
fees of 1
mean a 4.125 block
which is not quite a real ½ ing
Even when we were 12.5 and fees were high
we went from 14
to 7 for a while
which was a lot more like a real ½ ing