The point table is looking alright. Australia will strengthen their position, considering their next series is against Windies and then away series against NZ and SL. I guess they will fix their spot for the finals. For next spot fight should be between IND, NZ, and to some extent PAK if they manage to perform well.
For India, the next series is against England at home. Apart from Australia, none of the other teams are capable of challenging India at home, so I would say that India should get full points from this match. It is a long and extended series with 5 test matches spread out across three months. And for Australia, the next series is against New Zealand. The Kiwis are not in good form, but they always perform well when they are up against their arch-rivals. And at the moment, the gap between Australia and India is not that wide.
Securing full points against England won't be possible as Poms usually win at least 1 match in almost every tour and this time they are in fine form due to BAZBALL. They are not very skilled against spin so they will go ahead with attacking and at times brainless cricket, it could win them at least 1 match and if they get lucky then who knows? Having said that 3-1 in favor of India looks reasonable with 1 draw (because of flat track at 1 venue or weather).
~snip~
Whichever team ends up going through to the finals would gladly want India to end up on the other side because we all know how good they are at choking in major events these days.
Jokes aside, I feel that Australia will definitely secure a finals spot as you mentioned, but it's way too early to tell who will grab the other spot.
In English conditions our chances against any SENA country in a one-off test (finals) are slim. So yeah, another choke might be on the cards. Not because we are weak but teams need some match practice to get used to the conditions. For SENA it's familiar conditions so it suits them more. The situation would be exactly the opposite if WTC finals are scheduled in the Subcontinent.