Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!

Well, if you want to go down memory lane in regards to BTC spot prices, it seems equally valid to me to go down the road of the 200-week moving average. This is what the 200-week moving average looks like, every two years.**

In late 2015 it was: $252

In late 2017 it was: $1,049

In late 2019 it was: $4,908

In late 2021 it was: $17,839

In late 2023 it was: $29,049

**Note: you can see more years for 200-week moving average on a every six month's basis here.

Even though you can also compare spot price to the 200-week moving average (and most times spot price is above the 200-week moving average, except most recently between about mid 2022 until October 2023, we spent a lot of time below the 200-week moving average), I personally believe the 200-week moving average is a much better way to evaluate the value of your bitcoins.

Are you serious. I just confirmed and it is absolutely through JJG. Does it mean Bitcoin follows a certain pattern at some intervals? And if we are to jump into buying or selling whenever we come across these patterns, is it the right to do?

I think these patterns are caused by traders activities in the market. If Bitcoin has a particular patterns it follows at a certain intervals or time, then Bitcoin price can be predicted correctly. The traders are the ones who are acting similarly that's why the patterns are looking so similar, since it is the market activities that determine the price movement. The patterns are just there to aid you in knowing what happened in the past, and act as a guide when making decisions. The decision to buy or sell whenever you come across these patterns is yours alone to make, as past events doesn't really guarantee same occurance because from the time of the last one many things/events might have played out, which may alter somethings from happening or repeating itself exactly same way it happened last time.

Yes I quite agree with your idea, however and whatever happens to Bitcoin it all depends on what most of the traders involved there do, on the other hand yes it is obvious that if indeed Bitcoin has a certain pattern then I think this is not trading because most likely the price movement will be predictable and there will only be profit in that situation while on the other hand trading is always about profit opportunities and risk of loss. So we can't make the pattern as the main point to follow because after all it is the history of the price movement that has happened in the past and because something happened exactly as you said.

But on the other hand I would not say that history is not useful at all because obviously it is something that we can combine with the knowledge we have along with what is now happening that has an influence on the price movement of bitcoin. On the other hand, I also always use that method, or that means I always look first at the last price movement before I finally open a trade, making it a benchmark to consider what decisions I will take at a certain time, even if for example in the end my prediction misses but it doesn't matter because there will always be wisdom and something that can be learned to be more developed.