Ninjastic
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
True Myth
on 11/01/2024, 03:08:10 UTC
⭐ Merited by philipma1957 (2) ,JayJuanGee (1) ,sirazimuth (1) ,vapourminer (1)
Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:46:12 AM
Quote from: philipma1957 on January 10, 2024, 10:07:36 PM
Quote from: AlcoHoDL on January 10, 2024, 10:00:06 PM
Investors spooked by X "incident"?
ETFs priced-in?
"Buy the rumor, sell the news"?

I don't see much action (yet)...  Tongue

the ETF is not priced in.  but the 1/2 ing is priced in.

no one really knows what the etf will do to price.

Neither is priced in.

Of course, people know about the halvening and they know that the supply of new bitcoin will continue to be reduced until the year 2140, but still that is not priced in either, even though I get your point about the halvening being better known.. . but the efficient market hypothesis is incorrect when it comes to something like the halvening, especially since so many folks really do not know what is bitcoin, so don't get fooled by how much press bitcoin is getting in order to cause you to wrongly believe that people (and therefore the market) sufficiently knows what bitcoin is in order to sufficiently and adequately prepare for each of the time (every four years) that it's new issuance gets cut in half and little by little the squeeze is felt, which partially contributes the historically largest portion of the UPpity squeeze (and exponential price movement) tending to happen several months after the halvenings rather than before hand.. since if the halvening was really priced in then the BTC price would go up in anticipation of the halvenings rather than after their effects are more and more greatly felt.

Well said.

Talking with friends and colleagues I'm getting the feeling that we are in the pre-halving limbo. The phase when people are noticing Bitcoin again and hearing about it on the news.  However, those folks and even folks who have been around for maybe the last bull run are silently observing. Some kind of thinking like "$46k to the dollar is better than $20k but, it's still significantly lower than $69k."  Even potential large market movers may be waiting.

It seems like there is a disbelief every bull run that Bitcoin will increase significantly in value to the dollar.  Eventually after the halving it seems like the snowball starts rolling and just keeps going.

The ETF news was surely welcomed positive news however, it was also mixed with the Twitter bullshit. I noticed some pretty quick run ups followed by quick run downs over the last couple days that happened within minutes.  I think many are not sure if ETF is sell the news or "God candle" time.  They may be waiting for the market to settle or take off unexpectedly before making a move.  Another point to back this up is the amount of money that was sucked out of shitcoins the days leading up to the ETF announcement. The market as a whole is unsure if it's upity time or wait and buy lower time.

All of this doesn't much matter to me and many others who are steadily accumulating. What does matter is when the supply gets cut while the demand remains.