Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi. If you're already open to the idea of mid thirties than we're not that different. My estimate is somewhere between $25K to $35K.
Really...then why why make an ETF?
Because TradFi cares about Bitcoin, clearly. Not to be confused or conflated with the alternative scenario. Bitcoin has quite clearly demonstrated today with a -5% drop post-launch: it doesn't care for TradFi.
Today money flows:
bitcoin on exchanges: 61 bil
bitcoin on tradfi: 3.2 bil
So...currently 5% of the flows in btc are ETFs-driven.
Exactly. It's currently a drop in the ocean. As predicted by much of the media, it's barely relevant, much like when Bitcoin Futures initially launched. The interest was almost non-existent.
For reference inflows were never expected to be that high initially, regardless of current price being high or low. Asset managers and institutions were always going to sit on the sidelines and engage in a more "wait and see" approach, as a form of basic risk management rather than FOMO into such an offering, such as waiting for price stability over a period of months.
This number will probably increase with time.
This I don't doubt, but until it does, I wouldn't describe Bitcoin as TradFi, only aspiring to be as such. There is still a long way to go, these concepts don't happen overnight or with a flick of a "ETF" switch.