Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
Of course, I know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines (30-40%), apart from even a higher % decline (~50%) in the middle of 2021.
2021's 50% decline was because of China banning Bitcoin (again), afair.
Sometimes, in silent moments, i imagine what BTC's ATH in 2021 could have been without that ChinaBan21.
I would say that decline came from FTX selling off customer BTC to pump shitcoins in an attempt to get investors at a massively overvalued valuation. I wouldn’t discount a pullback either way just because of where we’re at in the market cycle, but I wouldn’t compare it to 2021. If anything we are in the start of 2020 in the cycle.
I agree to that 2020 market cycle analogy.
IMO the second 2021 crash, starting the previous bear market cycle was premature due to FTX sellings. Maybe FTX and China accumulated their bearish momentum in the mid bullrun crash? However, i got no solid information on FTX '21 activities, i mostly ignored them after they bought my favorite chart monitoring app and slowly ruined it. I don't even remember the name, but it was OK for my personal preferences.
I'd be OK with breaking and staying above $48-$49k until halvening too, but as we know from the past, FOMO will exaggerate a bit more than last cycle, so i also take higher prices (pre Halvening) into account. No matter what, i'm hodling, though i do consider to set up some minor laddering sells for only the next three months above last ATH to buy back moar. In theory...
When I sell, I don't expect to buy back, even though it does seem to end up happening, but the underlying assumption of the sell is to not necessarily be able to buy back, but if the price ends up going down to some pre-established buy back number, then I would buy back, but otherwise, for me, there is no assumption of any ability to buy back. Are we saying the same thing? I am not sure. Because you said "to buy back in theory".. which seems to presume that you are not necessarily expecting that you would be able to buy back, but you are selling at such a high price and in such small quantities that it would not matter to you either way.. so maybe we are kind of saying/doing the same thing, but just phrasing the proposition a wee bit differently..
Well, as i joined in pretty late in terms of Bitcoin history, in 2017, though being interested in BTC since 2013, i am still trying to accelerate accumulation through small scale sell high/buy low activities. In the past i was behaving relatively conservative, regarding this strategy, but it would have turned out well - in theory - so i didn't actually take some (most) opportunities, being cautious not to having to buy back at a higher price. After almost two full cycles i got more self esteem to actually set up some positions to make moar - at least a little. Sure, in the longer run, selling in the ups and buying in the downs of the cycles would be safer, as long as we don't run into a S-curve. It's a kind of in between plan i tried to figure out over the last years, maybe risking a single digit percentage of my Bitcoin holdings, no biggie.