Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Wouldn’t take the risk myself neither….
Few FIAT bucks profit not to be sure what it’s gonna do….
This time really can be different.
*just not selling any coins on the cheap.
Dude you are in a different league then others or at least I have that impression.Few FIAT bucks profit not to be sure what it’s gonna do….
This time really can be different.
*just not selling any coins on the cheap.
If I had 300 coins in spring of 2021 I would have sold 25 at say 60k x 25 = 1.5 million after tax I would have
1,000,000 and that would cover me from 2021 to at least 2026. WHICH means I could easy peasy hodl right
now.
I did not or ever had 300 coins (my own stupidity as it was easy for me to do at 1 time)
So I have 2 ladder ups.
45k to 70k a smaller step ladder these sales cover me for all of 2024
101k and up a large real ladder these sales give me funds for 3 years
and I still hodl.
But I am not at your scale dude not at all.
Maybe any of us is in a pickle if they are feeling they need to sell BTC prior to having had accumulated enough to get at entry-level fuck you status, and I am not even sure why anyone who had 300 BTC would have had been worried as of around mid-to-late 2020, the 200-week moving average ended up bringing them above entry-level fuck you status. See my chart on the topic.
Entry-level Fuck you status chart - attempt to prognosticate.
BTC_Price Bottom Start $ StartDate Gain/Time(days) FU Status Goal
$0.30 12/1/10 182.6 (6 mos) $2,000,000
.....
BTC_Price Bottom Start $ StartDate Gain/Time(days) FU Status Goal
$0.30 12/1/10 182.6 (6 mos) $2,000,000
.....
(Date) | (RL_Price) | (BTC Bottom) | (%gain/time) | (% Rate ∆) | ($ Amount ∆) | (#Coins/FU Status) |
5/31/20 | $9,472 | $5,895 | 20.11% | $987.00 | 339.2706 | |
11/30/20 | $19,610 | $7,322 | 24.21% | $1,427.00 | 273.1494 | |
5/31/21 | $35,497 | $12,751 | 74.15% | $5,429.00 | 156.8504 | |
11/30/21 | $57,003 | $17,839 | 39.9% | $5,088.00 | 112.1139 | |
5/31/22 | $29,817 | $22,074 | 23.74% | $4,235.00 | 90.6043 | |
11/30/22 | $17,164 | $24,112 | 9.23% | $2,038.00 | 82.9463 | |
06/01/2023 | $26,822 | $26,313 | 10.9% | $2,201.00 | 76.0081 | |
11/30/23 | $37,814 | $29,049 | 10.4% | $3,021.10 | 68.84920000 | |
5/31/24 | $33,697 | 16.% | $5,391.49 | 59.35270000 | ||
11/29/24 | $39,196 | 16.32% | 102.00% | $6,396.81 | 51.02540000 | |
5/31/25 | $45,721 | 16.65% | 102.00% | $7,610.89 | 43.74365689 | |
11/30/25 | $53,484 | 16.98% | 102.00% | $9,081.23 | 37.39434790 | |
5/31/26 | $58,298 | 9.% | .00% | $5,246.78 | 34.30674120 | |
11/30/26 | $63,282 | 8.55% | 95.00% | $5,410.61 | 31.60455200 | |
5/31/27 | $68,422 | 8.12% | 95.00% | $5,557.59 | 29.23031931 | |
11/30/27 | $73,702 | 7.72% | 95.00% | $5,687.11 | 27.13637487 | |
5/31/28 | $84,020 | 14.% | $11,763 | 23.80383760 | ||
11/29/28 | $96,018 | 14.28% | 102.00% | $13,711 | 20.82939937 | |
5/31/29 | $110,004 | 14.57% | 102.00% | $16,023 | 18.18119870 | |
11/29/29 | $126,347 | 14.86% | 102.00% | $18,771 | 15.82943367 | |
5/31/30 | $136,455 | 8.% | $10,916 | 14.65688302 | ||
11/30/30 | $146,825 | 7.6% | 95.00% | $11,159 | 13.62163850 | |
5/31/31 | $157,426 | 7.22% | 95.00% | $11,366 | 12.70438211 | |
11/30/31 | $168,224 | 6.86% | 95.00% | $11,538 | 11.88892102 | |
5/30/32 | $188,411 | 12.% | $22,609 | 10.61510805 | ||
11/29/32 | $211,472 | 12.24% | 102.00% | $25,884 | 9.45750895 |
So anyone with at least 157 BTC in the beginning of 2021 or 112 BTC at the end of 2021 could have easily started to sell 4% of their stash per year and not had to have had worried whether in BTC price doldrums or not. And, even though 2022 and 2023, were not really great years for the 200-week moving average going up (since it only went up around 20% per year for much of that time, we still got to the point of double digits for the quantity of BTC necessary for entry-level fuck you status going from 90 BTC to 83 BTC, to 76 BTC and only around 69 BTC for as late as late 2023, with a projection of 51 BTC to 59 BTC for entry-level fuck you status for this year.
So I don't really see why there would be needs for anyone with at least those quantities of coins during each of those respective years to be worrying about if he has enough coins if he is merely wanting to cash out of BTC in a kind of sustainable way.. and so in other words having 300 BTC would be way superficial even for early as early 2021.
By the way, it is starting to seem that I had gone overboard on my conversion of my fuck you status chart into bing overly conservative in terms of where we likely are going to be in May 2024 or even December 2024, in terms of the quantity of coins that are going to be necessary for default entry-level fuck you status, and surely I feel better to be conservative, but it is quite amazing how the number of coins for entry-level fuck you status has continued to come down, and surely no needs to be whining about not having 300 BTC within it is seeming soon to be the case that 51 BTC is going t be adequate by the end of this year.
Maybe another 89 ETFs would help? 
11 should be enough.
No need to be greedy.
Reading all the posts about sells and buys and tops and pullbacks makes me feel more fortunate about my strategy.
I may not have nearly as much BTC stacked as some of you but, that puts me in full accumulation mode. I've got maybe 8-10 years before I may need to think about selling anything. This makes things easy for me... Every week when I have my left over cash I ask myself "Will BTC be worth more in 2032 than today?" Everytime I answer yes, I buy more.
I did contemplate trying to sell the peak and rebuy lower this bull run but, honestly what are the chances of me actually nailing that? So many factors go into executing this strategy perfectly. Plus, I'd have tax implications to deal with.
Wish you all the best of luck with your strategies. No matter if we hit 30k or 60k I'll be ready with my buys
I may not have nearly as much BTC stacked as some of you but, that puts me in full accumulation mode. I've got maybe 8-10 years before I may need to think about selling anything. This makes things easy for me... Every week when I have my left over cash I ask myself "Will BTC be worth more in 2032 than today?" Everytime I answer yes, I buy more.
I did contemplate trying to sell the peak and rebuy lower this bull run but, honestly what are the chances of me actually nailing that? So many factors go into executing this strategy perfectly. Plus, I'd have tax implications to deal with.
Wish you all the best of luck with your strategies. No matter if we hit 30k or 60k I'll be ready with my buys
I extended my chart out to 2032 just to account for your post, and surely we see that the 200-week moving average is likely to continue to go up , and I have $188,411 and $211,472 for the then bottom prices, which would mean 9.5 BTC and 10.6 BTC for entry-level fuck you status by 2032, and maybe or maybe you will not be able to reach those levels of BTC accumulation by 2032... but even if you don't, your ongoing accumulation of BTC is likely to make you better off than if you had not been accumulating BTC... no guarantees, but still.