So you mean to say Bitcoin won't make ATH this time around 1/1.5 years after halving?
Nothing is guaranteed, although I understand what the OP is trying to say. As @mindrust already mentioned, past data doesn't predict the future. Yes, the historical data show that Bitcoin has been performing in approximately 4-year-old circles, but that alone cannot guarantee what's going to happen in the future. Moreover, we don't have enough data to safely say that this will also happen in 4, 8, 12 years, and so on. If we suppose that we had a history of 30-year-old data and identified that every circle runs every 4 years and the price surges to a new ATH every time, or close at least, then we could be more confident in what we could predict for the future.
You can't ignore what's at hand, halving is coming and bull run signs are already there, several coins have gone multiple X already, BRC20 shitcoins are giving hefty returns, this time also we are seeing positive news surrounding crypto as BTC ETF was just approved. What more guarantee do you look for?