I think in the last cycle price dipped to 16.6k lower than 19.5k (prev cycle's high) But the one before (2016-2020) yes the correction is higher than the prev. all time high. I guess you can never really assign a pattern to these things.
patterns only work until everyone sees the pattern then people bet against or plan early to beat the pattern, thus breaking the pattern
there are many reasons why the 20k-16.5k are outliers because based on a hourly chart numbers show spikes to those. but on daily/weekly they do not which show difference between a few odd people getting extremely luck vs the real value-premium opportunities that many could get
(in short not everyone got the opportunity to sell at max high of 2017 and max low of 2022)
however
expecting a $50k(lucky few if any) after 2025 ATH is stretching things a bit too far below previous ATH of $70k
a SAFE bet would be to treat $70k(opportunity for masses) as bottom rather then waiting and hoping to see $50k, because it might not get to $50k
remember the social and speculation of most:
being online, available, cash despostited and ready to press button and able to precicely decide "now is the time" and pick the exact bottom of $50k instead of wishful thinking "what if it went to $48k ill wait a bit longer.. "and then mis out completely
This actually makes sense. Yes, 50 % from the top is good bet without any other tools to estimate tops and bottom. I think $140,000 is conservative for the top.