Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: The BTC Scaling Law
by
BTCdragosfera
on 13/01/2024, 23:31:04 UTC
This graph addresses the comments of the skeptics that sais the model will change the parameters over time and so it is not valid. The parameters change slightly as we add more data mostly because of the large deviations during the bubbles. It depends if you do the fitting near the top or bottom. This has nothin to do with the goodness of the model but the fact we have a phenomenon with a general trend and period large deviations.
Anyway, I calculated the slope and y-intercept of the power law for each day in the last 7 years and created a model for each day using these parameters extrapolated to today and all the data for the real up today (so it is easy to compare all the models). I then averaged the model given the parameters oscillate around a mean value. I compare with the model today. This is the result:

https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111/status/1746312103089328281

As you can see the model today and the average over parameters up to 7 years ago is basically identical for all purposes. This shows the power law pattern is stable in time. This should resolve all doubts.

Of course, it doesn't guarantee that is going to work forever but even if does we will learn something about the dynamic of BTC. So far the power law has been respected and I will expect to work in the same for several years in the future.