Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!

Now just to wait for a dip to hodl, and I right?

Feels like we've been starved of dips since March 2023, when price corrected from $25K to $20K, which was an incredibly tasty dip. Since then, we've had $30K to $25K that barely reached -20%.

All I can say is that I'm looking forward to more dip buying in the near future. Hopefully 2024 will be better dip buying experience than 2023 was!

I'm surprised, expecting a DIP in this 2024, I do no think so. The market is currently recovering and I don't think we should expect anymore DIP. The DIP which we have been anticipating is now at this price for those who earlier missed buy at the $15k+, $20k+ and $30k+ as long we are still below the last ATH, I consider it a good DIP for many investors to come in.

Most people also thought this in 2020 (myself included), prior to a 60% correction. 2016 was very similar, people thought the bull market had already begun and the price was "UP ONLY", but instead there was a -40% correction and 6 months of consolidation before moving higher.

NEVER be surprised to see such an aggressive dip when not in a "full-blown" bull market. Until $48.5K is reclaimed and passed on long-term time-frames, this move (from $15.5K to $49K) will forever be a dead cat bounce, just like in 2019 as well as 2016, as it's the expected retracement level from $69K to $15.5K (61.8%).

The main difference is, after this expected retracement level, Bitcoin has never fallen lower than it's low the year before, even if it came close in 2020 due to a black swan event, so it's technically a dead cat bounce without bearish continuation basically. Even if full-blown bull markets, when price has reached a new ATH there are still dips of usually up to -35%, but otherwise more recently (2021) up to -50% now apparently. TL:DR: There are always dips.

Plus people in the topic who are convinced that there will be "NO MORE MAJOR DIPS" should stop thinking binarily and start thinking in probabilities. Because with the macro-economics looking bad in major economies like China and the United States, it could start a systemic event that might take the economies in different regions around the world with them.

The unemployment data in the United States will be a leading indicator in knowing if there will be a sudden crash, and if Jerome Powell starts to pivot - For the wrong reasons. The "soft-landing" might not happen. It will be "higher for longer" until something will break.

Personally I got to the point of not really believing a recession or otherwise will arrive, unless it actually does. Many bearish analysts were screaming about an impending recession in 2023 that never arrived, and while I'm aware these things can take time to play out, I think it's run it's course of occurring with much probability now that inflation is under control again (it seems). I realise you might not of been referencing a recession directly, but similarly macro-economics looking bad or "going a bit wrong" is again something that can simply occur any day or any week or any year, but rarely actually occurs. Predicting or anticipating these things seems even more difficult imo, the only ones who get it right are those who have been calling for a recession every week or month since 2008. Eventually, they get it right!

However saying all that, I wouldn't be surprised if "something" happened that spooks the market in the next few months, as I feel Bitcoin will be very luck to avoid a black swan event leading into the halving (it's my most pessimistic scenario, and doesn't involve a low below $15.5K, but does involve coming close to around $19K). Either way I think it'd be a great buying opportunity, as generally Bitcoin and markets do look strong right now, even if they were to return to near the lows, there has been years worth of consolidation in order to support the price - alas I think making new lows has becoming very unlikely.