Example 8: This person has similar circumstances as Example 4 with mostly a lump sum investment towards the earlier stages of his investment.. and so there will be a bit of an assumption that the lump sum investment amount will have come from saving $10-$15 per week through most of 2016, 2017, and 2018 (so we will estimate be a bit generous and estimate the savings and lump sum amount to have had been $2,400), and so if the purchase of BTC was made based on BTC prices through out 2019, we might have to estimate an average cost per BTC around $7k, which would be around 0.32432432 BTC, and then if we presume $10 per week investment into bitcoin starting on April 1, 2019,
(rather than merely 18 months), so the
DCA portion of his investment ended up being $2,510 and accumulated about 0.15787 BTC, and so his total invested would be $4,910 (lump sum of $2,400 and DCA of $2,510) with a total amount of BTC 0.48219432 (0.32432432 + 0.15787). (currently worth around $20,493).
So part of my point in showing example 8 is to suggest that a guy is going to likely be better off to include DCA into his investment approach, even if he might start out with a lump sum, and surely, even just getting started with DCA right from the start (which example 7 shows) would have performed even better results than example 8.
If there are some facts that I am missing, then let me know, yet I stick by my assertion that anyone new to bitcoin, should get the fuck started as soon as possible, whether that is strictly just DCA while trying to figure out matters, or maybe lump sum investing and then supplementing with DCA until reaching some amount of BTC accumulation that is comfortable for his situation or at least triggers him to adjust his approach.
Surely, I have no problem with the idea of also holding some money aside in order to buy on dips too... but if the buying of BTC is quite regular in the earlier stages of BTC investing, there are going to be periods in which the BTC price dips and since DCA is already taking place, then buying at those lower dip prices would also be taking place under such dip conditions..
What I'm learning from example 8, is that while lump suming might be a good strategy to start with, it's better to also include dca in your accumulation strategy for maximum output. From your example 8 the guy actually accumulated more bitcoin from dca than he did from lump sum even if he started with lump sum first even with almost same amount. I think I should just start with dca and see how I can plan out everything, so if I have a start up capital that I would use from my savings about 200$ I could just divide this amount into smaller pieces and invest them on intervals, and if dips occurs or not ill still be on the winning side or do I still need to worry about buying dips if I'm using only dca.
You cannot really know how the numbers are going to play out, so you should be merely attempting to do your best with what you got and what you know, and the thing that you know most is your own current budget (especially how much money you currently have on hand), and then you should have a pretty good idea of the amount of pay that you have coming in, but it cannot necessarily be completely known until you actually get paid. And, with your expenses, you probably know most of them, but you have some that come about from time to time or they change from time to time.
I think it can be good to at least think about all three categories of the way to invest (well 4 categories, if you think about making sure that your emergency fund is decently in place or being ongoingly built), and so sometimes you might be in circumstances in which you might not be able to employ all three circumstances, such as being able to employ the lump sum because you feel that you do not have enough of a lump sum to work with, and ultimately that is going to be up to you to figure out what would be the most comfortable of the balances of the 3/4 categories.
You may well feel screwed if the BTC price goes down after you had already invested all $200 and then you don't have anything left, and then you may well feel screwed if BTC prices go up and you still are sitting on some cash. In the beginning it is almost a no win situation and you just try to balance it out as best as you can, and maybe after a few years investing you start to feel that you have everything in place. You have figured out your budget and you have some reserves for buying on dips and you have built and established an emergency fund.. and maybe you have figured out some ways in increase your cash flows and to decrease your expenses... but you still are likely going to always have some tensions in terms of trying to figure out how many BTC you need and how long it is going to take to accumulate as many BTC as you believe that you need.. especially if your goals might be to reach
some variation of fuck you status...
and if you think about it, there are a lot of people who work 30-40 years or more and they do not reach fuck you status, so if you are able to actually reach it or maybe even reach it in 15-20 years, then you end up both reaching it and cutting the time in half.. and none of that is guaranteed.. You just need to do your best under your own particular circumstances.
Im definitely cool with dca cause from your examples I think dca is the best strategy for a newbie like me then I can learn more about buying dips and all that, and judging from my capital, how much would I be keeping out for dips, I just think its not enough, so I'll dca first, then I can add other plans later. Although I had already invested 10$ into bitcoin last week, I going now i can move a bit slowly, while getting more capital to fund other strategies.
Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, so you just do your best.. and sometimes it can be o.k. to build up a separate fund that you would be able to use for buying on dips, even if you might ONLY be setting aside a few dollars every week for such potential purposes, and frequently I think that $10 per week is very small, yet I know that some members in some parts of the world feel that they can ONLY do $10 per month, and so doing $10 per week, you are investing 4 times more than they are.. and sometimes there could be some ways to both invest into bitcoin regularly and to build up a side fund that you would use for buying on dips.. and really my example 8 is stemming from the hypothetical income and expenses that I described to exist in example 1 .
Example 1: This person has not accumulated any bitcoin, and has an income that is between $300 and $2k per month and most months his income is around $1,200, and monthly expenses of between $600 and $1,000 per month and most months $800. This person has a debt of $1,400 that he services at $50 per month with a 6% interest rate that he services at $50 month with an expected payoff in 30 months (2.5 years), and he has an emergency fund of about one month's expenses $1k.
So in my hypothetical there is already some income and expenses presumptions that even seem to give quite a bit of a cushion for possible investing into BTC, and there is debt described and a pretty much inadequate emergency fund, so sometimes there can be enough income to be able to accomplish several things at once, but at the same time, there can be struggles in which a person might not have much if any cash left over to be able to invest into bitcoin, and so there would likely need to be some setting of priorities and if they actually have emergency expenses that end up occurring in any particular month, they can end up putting themselves into a pickle if they don't have enough in their emergency funds to cover their expenses during that period, and they feel that they have to dip into their BTC at a time that is not of their own complete and voluntary choosing.
A lot of poor people (or not so rich people who have tight cashflows) will fail in their investments (including their BTC investment) because they have not structured their investment properly and they are ONLY preparing for UP and/or they are not creating, building and maintaining an adequate/sufficiently sized emergency fund.. which should be 3-6 months of their expenses in cash (or the currency in which they are paying their expenses).