I just see Arsenal repeating same thing they did in the premier league last season, just take a look at how Arsenal started very well this season just to reach this stage and starts losing points.
Arsenal were actually better last season than they are this season. They lost so much form this season and I believe it's due to fatigue. A top club needs squad depth to remain at the top and a very good rotation. Last season, Arsenal were still in form at this point of the season. They got bad after a couple of injuries and fatigue.
Fatigue is a very big problem that prevents high-flying teams. This usually affects teams that press very much in matches. It affected Liverpool too after they won the EPL.
Arsenal will make the top 4 but they won't be among title contenders.