Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
<snip> (convince me otherwise).
Why should we...you already have it all mapped out
Lol, yeh unless price says otherwise, I feel like I do. Or at least the 4 cycle does, which I am simply plagiarising here.
2023: bullish followed by "mini bear" (I have believed this since 2022 and so far wrong by about 10 days of 2024 being bullish though)
2024: early bearish followed by bullish (not sure on trend change though, this could be in april followed by consolidation, who knows etc)
Imho, unless we go under 36K on a weekly, we are still in a bull phase.
Totally agree based on say 20 Week MA @ $35.5K that is rising fast, support from here would mean immediate bullish continuation. My only issue is that it's in no mans land (ie low trade volume #mindthegap), so I don't believe price will find support in this range. Similar to how once $30K was broken to the upside, I didn't believe there would be any resistance until around $38K. If people want to believe in no mans land, then sure, it happens, it's just rare that price reverses in these areas without considerable trading volume building up first, that's all. But sure, let's just agree that anything could happen here. Like $100K tomorrow.
Overall unless we go under $30K we are still in a bull "phase" (based on bullish Weekly MA 50 & 200 crossover and price level, fib retracements etc) - as opposed to long-term bearish, like 2022. However, price would also remain bullish finding support from Ichimoku Cloud baseline support at $23K as well, so there is a margin for error, like lower prices than most expect to be the most bearish. You could also argue I'm not bearish long-term at all, despite thinking that $30K is now likely, for the reason provided, because this would simply be a bullish correction from a long-term bull trend.
My main concern is simply how bullish every remains, now that 2023 is over, as if 2019 and 2015 didn't exist as concepts for Bitcoin as part of a 4 year cycle, because "everything is different now", which while could be "completely true", has also been the narrative since 2013, and to put it simply, has never been the case so far. But I guess eventually, say it 10 times over, and it'll happen eventually... so there is that.