<snip> (convince me otherwise).
Why should we...you already have it all mapped out

Imho, unless we go under 36K on a weekly, we are still in a bull phase.
Bitcoin price does not seem to enter below 40k. Already we are going through a touch of a bull run, as it is a short bull run as the bitcoin halving is very likely to take place by mid-April.
And it is very likely that the price of Bitcoin will increase several times more from the post-halving period. Then we will be in the middle of the big bull run.
For now, I think the price of Bitcoin will stay between 40k and 42k.