These institutions have a growing treasury of Bitcoin in their vaults, https://bitcointreasuries.net/
In this topic, I will sound like a broken record/an insane person who will keep repeating this same advice over and over. Don't let the institutions front run you, YOU front run them. Buy the DIP, DCA, or both. You do what you're comfortable doing, but the important thing is to HODL those coins in cold-storage and never let the institutions get them from you. Probably give them a very small amount for the right price. Offer some for seven digits.
That sounds more like it... HODL the coins and "don't let the institutions get them". Such statement is testament to the fact that Bitcoin will be a great commodity in the future hence the need to take our Bitcoin accumulation seriously while guarding the asset jealousy. In this topic, I will sound like a broken record/an insane person who will keep repeating this same advice over and over. Don't let the institutions front run you, YOU front run them. Buy the DIP, DCA, or both. You do what you're comfortable doing, but the important thing is to HODL those coins in cold-storage and never let the institutions get them from you. Probably give them a very small amount for the right price. Offer some for seven digits.
Even when we don't know with certainty what the future holds for Bitcoin, it is our expectations that it will continue to gain the approval of people and big institutions even while efforts are also made to create use cases that are in consonance with the expectations of many and the very essence of its creation.
I will be more than happy and proud to know that I'm part of a revolution that will transform lives, offer solution to real human problems and indeed make a rapid improvement to ways of doing business across the globe.
Of course the longer that we have been into bitcoin, the more likely we have front-run those insiders who tend to have advantages in terms of getting into various kinds of investment possibilities.
I don't know where to draw the line because surely there have been institutions and status quo rich getting into bitcoin since 2020 when Saylor really began to be vocal about the matter, but still it likely took many of them a while to get it, and some of them still are not getting it, so it likely is a matter of degree how much any of us have been able to front run bitcoin in regards to various institutions and status quo rich.
Surely we should not be selling to any of them, either.. but some of us will, and hopefully we do not have any regrets about that.
So yeah, there are some of us who are even newer to bitcoin than Michael Saylor, and maybe some say that it would have had been better to have had front-run Michael Saylor, but still there are likely going to be more Michael Saylor -like folks who still do not get bitcoin, but at some point they are going to get it, and they have a lot of wealth and they are going to figure that they need to catch up.. and surely guys like Michael Saylor make my 1-25% allocation recommendation appear like it is way too conservative, but i am sticking with it... at least for now, because so many still have to get off zero.
By the way, I recall that Saylor's very first purchases in connection with MSTR had taken something like 75% of the company's then treasury (cash reserves), which was something like $250 million (which you can see discussions of that here), and thereafter they kept coming up with more and more cash to put into bitcoin, so I am not sure of the exact numbers, but in recent times (like the last year or so), Saylor likes to frequently brag that his company has gone quite a bit more than 100% into bitcoin in terms of their cash reserves and then their use of various debt instruments, which surely I would not be recommending those kinds of strategies for any normal people, so maybe that's part of the reason that I believe that even going as high as 25% for a bitcoin newbie is within a range of reasonableness to get started.. and then he has to figure out from that point how to get to his allocation target or if there might be ways to tailor their whole bitcoin approach in terms of their own particulars.. which I would think that even 5% to 25% would be largely front running a lot of institutions who are still having troubles getting off zero, and many of the ones seriously entertaining the possibility of getting into bitcoin are way lower in than 5% and more likely in a 1% to 3% range, and thinking that 3% is aggressive..
and by the way, even some of the very rich would quantitatively blow the hell out of many of us normies with merely 1% allocated into bitcoin, so they might start by buying somewhere between $1 million and $10 million, and that would be their 1% BTC allocation.... so yeah, I would still say that we are still front running them, especially if we are in the 10% to 25% allocation range, and in the end we have to figure out what we are able to do, since even if some of us might choose a fairly high allocation, it may still take us a while to reach such a target...
Let's say a guy had a $100k investment portfolio that he had been building for more than 10 years, and his income is around $40k per year, so 25% investment might meant that he is able to invest around $10k per year, which is around $200 per week, and so he still might be faced with some dilemma if he should reallocate from any of his other investments or otherwise it may well take him more than 2 years to get his bitcoin up to 25% of his total investment portfolio (which would be $25k at the current size of his investment portfolio, but it may well be higher if it takes him 2 years to get there by investing into BTC), and he might consider that he might have to act more urgently in order to go beyond what his income would allow him to do. Another issue that many folks have is that they might have some kind of tax deferred privilege such as a 401k, and they are reluctant to invest after that because they might feel that they don't have any money left over, so they might want both the employer's match, if such a thing exists and they may well also want the tax deferred status.. so whether they are going to be able to get BTC exposure through an ETF could be part of a solution for those kinds of guys, but still should not justify NOT holding actual BTC, even if they might be able to get some tax deferred exposure through their 401k.
What I feel is that the market is not likely to move very high in the next one to two weeks and neither is it likely to move very low.
That is called consolidation, and sure maybe you might "feel" that we are going sideways for 1-2 weeks, but what is the basis for your feelings merely beyond just feeling such? There is a lot that could happen in a short time, especially if there is a lot of money being juggled around in the bitcoin space, and sure maybe it will just neutralize itself, but who knows. There is still potential for explosive moves or even gradual moves up or down, and none of that would be considered to be a 1-2 week consolidation as you are proclaiming to currently "feel." So what are you personally doing to prepare? Are you already prepared for any possible direction? Or you are ONLY prepared for sideways in the coming week or two?
Of course the market cannot be predicted very accurately and as you say it is true that in the end we can only speculate whether the price will go up or down, but for me and according to my experience I have enough confidence that the possibility of an increase is greater than a decrease, and still I will not forget my risk management, but even so basically still I can't be too confident in the decisions I make because after all this is an investment where the possibility of risk will always lurk and reality can just slap me when it turns out that I was too careless.
Yesterday, I did my own prediction based on several possible timelines, and yeah, within that prediction, I am a bit of a range tard having the 200-WMA as my first number and then my predicted range being derived from the then expected 200-WMA.
[edited out]
...[edited out]....maybe you have somewhat forced me into considering how much of an ongoing upwardly draw upon the 200-week moving average should we consider the BTC spot price to have, and for now, and for the purpose of this post, I am going to ballpark my estimates, somewhat and stick with between about 20% and 60%, even though it may well be higher than 60% in the near future and it may gravitate down to 10% or less in 50, 100 and/or 133 years.2 weeks? $30,650 or $35k to $55k
1 month? $31k or $35k to $55k
3 months? $33k or $35k to $55k
6 months? $36k or $40k to $55k
9 months? (time for a baby) $40k or $80k to $120k
1 Year? $45k or $80k to $120k
2 Years? $65k or $120k to $300k
4 Years? $96k or $120k to $300k
8 Years? $168k or $200k to $400k
12 Years? $350k or $400k to $600k
20 years? $1 million or $1.2 million to $1.5 million
50 years? (I am likely to be dead too.. but I still care for the purpose of this projection) $11 million or $12 million to $14 million
100 years? $213 million or $240 million to $280 million
133 years? $800 million or $900 million to $1.2 billion