[...]
♦️ Correction before halving (maybe to $30k-$35k)
♦️ A few months of consolidation during the summer
♦️ Bullish Q4 of 2024 and a new ATH of $70,000
♦️ $100k $BTC in Q1 of 2025
♦️ Full-blown altseason where alts will pump 100x-1000x
♦️ Some consolidation and correction in Q2 of 2025
♦️ In Q3 of 2025, the pump will resume, and BTC will hit $200k–$250k in Q4 of 2025.
[...]
Meriting this for the hopium, but predictions like this are more or less Crystal Ball
TM material IMHO. Regardless, 2024 & 2025 are indeed special, when compared to the previous cycles, due to the ETF approvals, combined with the incoming Halving. Choo-choos will honk many times in the coming 24 months.
Pretty good tweet I saw below. Obviously ignore the shitcoin references.
Bitcoin only.
@Ashcryptoreal
BITCOIN WILL HIT $250K IN 2025
From $250k high to capatulation dump below $100k in 2026.
Excellent trading opportunity.
It is reasonable to expect that wild swings like the one you describe could gradually be "tamed" by the ETF players + regulation, resulting in a slower, but more stable and organic growth, that closely resembles the current 50-, 100-, or even 200-WMA trendlines further into the future. This will be good for HoDLers, not so good for traders. Will see how things play out.
Even with ETFs, gold had several corrections during a first bull run (2004-2011): a 20% in 2006, and a 28% in 2008, then a large bear between 2011 and 2015 (43.6%) and then a new ATH in 2020. Let's "play" with these numbers. The ATH to ATH in gold was 9 years (roughly 2.5X longer than btc) and small corrections are also instructive.
Bitcoin used to have up to 50% corrections within the bull. This is probably gone now, but 28-30% (within the bull might happen). However, after we peak, I don't expect more than 50-60% down (vs prior 77% and above). I am not sure if bitcoin will continue the 4 year cycle, but it probably will, but with diminishing up- and down-sides. We will probably transition to 25-30% yearly ROI in the next cycle (2024-2028 or 2025-2029 based on ATH peaks). Of note, if we get to 250K in 2025, it would mean roughly just below 40% yearly ROI (from prior ATH to ATH at 250K).