However, if the asset is really volatile and largely not going up very much in value or even going down in value, then the traders have way better chances to outperform the HODLers, and so we cannot really be sure about bitcoin's future performance, even though we may well continue to try to bank on some of the theories that bitcoin has a lot of ongoing upward price potential that includes various underlying assessments of why it has such sound money, digital scarcity and censorship resistance strengths that contribute towards the three strongest of underlying price theories in regards to bitcoin that the traders might not be able to time as well as they believe that they are able to accomplish.. which is the 1) stock to flow, 2) the four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer).
It is not guaranteed that the BTC HODLer / persistent and consistent DCA accumulator is going to outperform the trader, even though historically it has been true, yet persistent, consistent and even aggressive BTC accumulation is likely a pretty solid way forward especially for anyone who is either a no coiner or a low coiner, and how much BTC they need to stack is surely a bit of a question that is based on their assessment of at least their 9 factors.
While it is true that a trader might or would be very successful in a very or normal volatile conditions which is a very nature of Bitcoin, but from history bitcoin has shown other nature as when they is no really big price movement and the price continues to stay around a certain area, so in essence traders are wholly dependent on the market to make profit or to use their skill, while I'm not trying to talk down on trading as a skill, but I'm saying that they are so dependent on the opportunities the Market creates for them to take action. While as a DCA investor or bitcoin holder at large, we don't really care if so what price fluctuations occurs in the Market, while there no guarantee that our results would out perform the traders even if historically it says otherwise, we are always likely to have more success. I could even further my claim by saying that the very build of bitcoin would favour long term holders over traders. Bitcoin was made to be scarce, and scarcity would end up meaning that they would be more value of bitcoin and traders can not benefit from this and bitcoin might become less volatile in the future and traders might have to find other asset that they could trade.
Don't you consider that best or worse case scenarios are going to be largely tailored to the individual because if you are a newbie to bitcoin and even in a stage in which you might be mostly accumulating bitcoin for 5-10 years or longer, then you likely would be more advantaged for the BTC price to go down or to not go up so fast until you have at least had some time to build your stash, but if you largely established your stash then you should already be in a position that you are advantaged way more by the BTC price going up rather than down.
So a person who has built enough stash would have a different worse case scenario than a newbie who is still looking for opportunities to buy more bitcoin. And I think the approach and strategies would also differ based on individual too, cause someone who has built enough stash would prefer an uptrend market and would most likely prefer DCA method over lump summing or dip buys sunce he is looking mostly at maintaining his stash to be around a certain level and would mostly likely not support aggressive buying cause he would be considering different senerios and outcomes to be best for him. While another individual too a newbie would favour a different strategy and approach that would be in a kind of ways that would favour him to buy more bitcoin or build his stash more effectively and also considering the time this two set of persons either have left based on their goal and investment duration or are setting. Meaning that these senerios and strategies would continue to change as my investment matures and I reach a certain level of accumulation.
I think that your understanding sounds largely correct, and so you can consider accumulating 1-2 years, and then maybe 4-6 years and maybe even 10 years or more, and so if you project out further your worse, best and medium scenarios are going to change, and they are going to be changing as you go along, so yeah, it would work out pretty good if the BTC price either goes down or does not go up very much while you are accumulating and then mostly goes up later down the road, after you have built some decent stash.
But there could be scenarios that you build and build and then you expect the price to do up but it keeps going down or stays flat or really fails to go up. and then maybe some other bad things happen to bitcoin (and/or even in your life) where you are faced with having to figure out if you have to liquidate some or all of your BTC at a time that is not of your own choosing... so you could attempt to prepare for those kinds of scenarios too.. and how much preparation to make in any scenario should be somewhat proportional to how likely it is to happen, so if there is some 1-5% odds of some kind of Armageddon scenarios playing out, then you probably should not be spending more than 1-5% of psychology or resources to prepare for such a scenario, but you also probably should not be putting zero preparation into such scenarios either... as time goes on we can see that some scenarios become more likely or less likely, so we might have some scenarios that are low odds that end up playing out, and there could be some regionality to the scenarios too. so we should be careful in regards to making sure that we are prepared for various things, including how difficult it can be to be your own bank.
Let's say that you spend 10 years accumulating bitcoin and through that whole time you invest between $10 and $1k per week into bitcoin, and maybe you end up accumulating 1.5 bitcoin in 10 years for an average cost of around $100k per BTC, and perhaps in early 2034, bitcoin prices are bouncing around anywhere between $400k and $600k per BTC, and so maybe you hold 90% of your BTC and you have the other 10% in various 3rd party services... so maybe your BTC are worth somewhere around $800k (in today's dollars), so it would be pretty irresponsible if you were to have your private keys, your back up and your Trezor (or whatever might be the hardware devices that you are using) in your house and it burns down, so as your wealth increases then you likely have to take more and more measures to make sure that you are protecting yourself from worse case scenarios, even if such worse case scenarios exist and you might not have had thought of all of them in the beginning, but they become more important the longer that you are accumulating BTC and presumptively holding your own keys..
As you continue to explain this stuff out I begin to understand you better on this topic of senerios, I never thought that planning out or instances where accident would occur or I lose my assets where things I should consider. Even know I'm thinking of adding my currency value drop rate as part of senerios and I think this is so broad and if used well would yield a better success, just makes you more prepared for anything that could happen.